[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301131
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU DEC 30 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 8N12W 6N19W 3N36W 5N43W 3N51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM ON
BOTH SIDES OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 34W-39W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 2N19W TO THE COAST OF
SW AFRICA NEAR 7N12W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC COVERING THE FAR E GULF
TO 85W WHICH IS GIVING THE ENTIRE GULF SOUTHERLY SURFACE LOW
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NW GULF. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH
IS MOVING ACROSS SE LOUISIANA/SW MISSISSIPPI SUPPORTING A 1009
MB LOW NEAR NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA AND A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS S ACROSS ATCHAFALAYA BAY INTO THE GULF THEN W TO INLAND
OVER TEXAS NEAR GALVESTON GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N TO INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST FROM THE
ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI BORDER TO LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT IN RESPONSE TO AN
UPPER RIDGE AXIS IN THE W ATLC DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT
ACROSS S MEXICO OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT
PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. BROKEN TO OVER LOW CLOUDS
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E GULF E OF 88W. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE GULF LATE FRI/EARLY
SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC COVERS
THE FAR N CARIBBEAN N OF 19N WITH THE A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W TO
NEAR 16N66W. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE N OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS. THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE CARIBBEAN ARE DOMINATED BY A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. THE SW
FLOW ALOFT CONVERGING WITH THE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SW OF A LINE FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W TO NICARAGUA
NEAR 14N83W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
REMAIN OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS
OVER THE W ATLC ALONG 73W COVERING THE FAR E GULF OF MEXICO AND
THE W ATLC W OF 60W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 19N
W OF 57W TO OVER THE FAR E GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB
HIGH NEAR 28N77W. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC N
OF 21N BETWEEN 35W-60W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE
CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N36W ALONG 25N43W TO 22N50W WHERE IT
CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO 18N59W WHERE IT BECOMES A
SURFACE TROUGH INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
NEAR 17N62W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE COLD
FRONT AND BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE STATIONARY FRONT/SURFACE
TROUGH. BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND W ATLC W OF THE FRONT WITH
SKIES CLEARING N OF 27N W OF 77W. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE E
ATLC WITH A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1016 MB HIGH NEAR
24N28W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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