[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 292354
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED DEC 29 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA NEAR 9N13W TO 6N20W 3N30W 3N45W...
CURVING THROUGH 50W FROM THE EQUATOR TO 1N...INTO EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2S52W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 240 NM TO 300 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 8N11W 4N18W...AND THEN WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 4N18W 3N33W 4N43W 2N51W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH EAST TEXAS.
RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE WATERS TO THE
NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 92W AND 95W...AND IN EAST TEXAS. UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM MEXICO NEAR 20N98W
BEYOND THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. ONE SURFACE RIDGE GOES FROM THE
COASTAL WATERS OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO
TO 25N85W BEYOND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA. A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE IS
ALONG 25N52W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 26N62W 27N70W...AND BEYOND
A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N80W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 20N55W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH BARBUDA AND
ANTIGUA...TO 16N66W IN THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
A REMNANT CLOUD LINE CONTINUES FROM 16N66W TO 14N72W. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
19N60W TO 17N65W TO 15N75W. OTHER LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS ARE OVER THE WATERS FROM 13N TO THE 19N60W 15N75W
LINE. A SHEAR AXIS IS ALONG 18N74W 16N80W 12N83W. ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS REMAIN FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 79W AND 83W.
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES ON TOP OF
SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PASSES THROUGH 32N45W TO 24N54W
TO 20N58W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N39W TO 25N45W TO 20N55W. THE FRONT IS STATIONARY
FROM 20N55W...ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH BARBUDA AND
ANTIGUA...TO 16N66W IN THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N31W 26N40W 22N50W BEYOND 18N62W. A SURFACE
RIDGE IS ALONG 25N52W 26N62W 27N70W BEYOND A 1022 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N80W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN AFRICA AND
THE COLD FRONT...AROUND A 1015 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 24N32W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT







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