[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281752
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE DEC 28 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N13W
WESTWARD TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL ALONG 4N20W 4N40W 1N50W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 10W-17W...
AND FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 22W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER MISSISSIPPI NEAR 33N88W. A
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS S FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS HAVE ADVECTED
OVER NE MEXICO AND TEXAS DUE TO RETURN FLOW. 10-15 KT NE WINDS
ARE OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W WHILE 10-20 KT SE WINDS OVER THE W
GULF. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 40'S OVER THE N GULF STATES. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF
PRODUCING WESTERLY WINDS. A PATCH OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND
HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE SW GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT...THE SURFACE HIGH TO MOVE SE TO
CENTRAL FLORIDA IN 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG
THE TEXAS COAST IN 24 HOURS DUE TO RETURN FLOW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
NEAR 20N62W TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 15N69W 14N73W
DISSIPATING TO 10N76W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED
WITHIN 30 NM OF 15N75W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE NW OF
THE FRONT. 20-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND E
CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...W TO SW WINDS DOMINATE THE
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT...THE FRONT TO BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N52W TO THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 20N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE
FRONT. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION IS NW OF THE
FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE N OF 26N ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT.
A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 28N38W. A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 32N15W
TO 27N20W 24N25W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N W OF 65W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN 45W-65W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF 45W. A UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 6N55W. EXPECT...THE W ATLANTIC
COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 32N40W TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IN 24
HOURS WITH SHOWERS...A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION...AND
GALE FORCE WINDS. ALSO EXPECT THE E ATLANTIC FRONT TO MOVE E.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA







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