[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270541
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON DEC 27 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 10N13W 5N20W 3N30W 3N42W 3N51W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 23W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE COLD FRONT THAT EXITED THE GULF EARLY ON SUN HAS LEFT BROKEN
TO OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE GULF WATERS
WITH COLD TEMPERATURES AND SOME ISOLATED FAST MOVING SHOWERS.
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT REMAINS OVER
THE NE GULF N OF 26N E OF 90W TO OVER THE W ATLC. THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 30'S AND 40'S OVER THE GULF N OF 23N
TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER THE GULF ANCHORED
OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAIN STATES. EXPECT THE SURFACE
RIDGE TO REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE GULF OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CUBA NEAR CAMAGUEY
JUST OF THE TIP OF HONDURAS/NICARAGUA WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST
COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS W OF THE FRONT. A PRE-FRONTAL
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CUBA NEAR SANTIAGO
DE CUBA OVER JAMAICA TO NEAR 17N78W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
BETWEEN THE FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH. THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN IS
UNDER SW TO W FLOW ALOFT IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED
IN THE TROPICS. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
FROM 13N79W ACROSS PANAMA TO 7N79W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 13N TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA AND
PANAMA BETWEEN 72W-79W AND CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE FROM 17N68W TO 13N76W. THIS
IS LEAVING THE E CARIBBEAN EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 25N W OF 68W INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A STRONG FAST MOVING COLD FRONT THAT
ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N71W ALONG 26N75W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS
AND CUBA INTO THE CARIBBEAN NEAR CAMAGUEY. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N70W ALONG 25N73W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND
CUBA INTO THE CARIBBEAN NEAR SANTIAGO DE CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH AND THE FRONT WITH BROKEN TO
OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS W OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE E ATLC N OF 23N BETWEEN 20W-45W
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE E ATLC NEAR 32N24W
EXTENDING ALONG 26N33W TO 21N46W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN
60/75 NM E OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT SPLITS A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
THAT COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E AND THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH A
1022 MB HIGH W OF THE FRONT NEAR 28N48W AND A SECOND 1022 MB
HIGH E OF THE FRONT NEAR 27N23W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW




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