[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250600
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT DEC 25 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 6N11W
WESTWARD ALONG 4N20W 3N30W 3N40W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
1N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 15W AND 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS SE TEXAS
SUPPORTING A 1014 MB LOW EMERGING OFF THE TEXAN COAST NEAR
30N95W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW CENTER ALONG THE
TEXAS COAST TO BROWNSVILLE. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS
STARTING TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER NEAR 28N95W AND
ALIGNS WITHIN 60 NM ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COAST TO VERACRUZ
MEXICO. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 25N W OF 93W. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WITH MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
ELSEWHERE AT THE MOMENT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE NW AND N-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THIS AREAS. HOWEVER...THE FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IS BRINGING DEEP MOISTURE FROM
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA TO MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CARIBBEAN...AS WELL AS ENHANCING CONVECTION FOCUSED ALONG A
SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 14N61W
13N70W 10N80W. NNE FLOW N OF THE BOUNDARY AND TRADE WINDS S OF
THE BOUNDARY ARE CONVERGING ALONG THE AXIS TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE LINE. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THE CONVECTION WILL LINGER
OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE FAR W ATLC W OF 65W PROVIDING
RELATIVELY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...A
LARGE AND BROAD DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLC
BY A 966 MB LOW CENTERED E OF NEWFOUNDLAND NEAR 47N47W THAT
CONTINUES TO EXTEND INFLUENCE OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL ATLC.
THIS SYSTEM SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION
AREA NEAR 32N40W AND EXTENDS SW ALONG 25N50W 21N60W TO NORTHERN
HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N71W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM E OF
THE FRONT WITH DENSE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE FRONT WITH WINDS UP TO 30 KT. COLD
AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC W OF
THE FRONT. TO THE SW OF THIS FRONT INTO THE WEST TROPICAL
ATLC...A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 18N54W TO 10N55W SUPPORTING ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 47W AND 52W. A
SHEAR AXIS IS WEST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 15N57W WSW INTO
THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE. THE
REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N24W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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