[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241131
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI DEC 24 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED EMERGING OFF THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE
NEAR 8N13W WESTWARD ALONG 3N20W 1N30W EQ40W TO BRAZIL NEAR
2S47W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4S TO 5N
BETWEEN 20W AND 44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION WITH
RELATIVELY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
HOWEVER...A REMNANT CLOUD LINE STRETCHES NW TO SE ACROSS THE
GULF FROM THE COAST OF TEXAS NEAR 28N96W TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
NEAR 22N85W. LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE REGION. LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WEEKEND...A VIGOROUS UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN
TEXAS...AND WILL GENERATE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL DEEPEN
AS IT TRACKS EAST THROUGH SUNDAY ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL INTRODUCE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OVER
THE NW GULF BY EARLY SUNDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN DUE TO ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW.
FURTHERMORE...SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN IS PROVIDING 10-20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE BASIN N OF 15N. THIS IS
FURTHER ENHANCING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THIS AREA. ON THE
OTHER HAND...MOIST S-SW FLOW ALOFT IS ENHANCING CONVECTION
FOCUSED ALONG A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN ALONG 14N61W 13N67W 13N73W 10N80W. NNE FLOW AND TRADE
WINDS ARE CONVERGING ALONG THE AXIS TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE LINE. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THE CONVECTION WILL LINGER
OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A RATHER LARGE AND BROAD DEEP LAYER TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED IN
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH ATLC BY A 966 MB LOW CENTERED SE
OF NEWFOUNDLAND NEAR 47N50W THAT CONTINUES TO EXTEND INFLUENCE
OVER MUCH OF THE W-SW ATLC. THIS SYSTEM SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N49W AND EXTENDS SW ALONG
25N60W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N76W. CURRENTLY...THE FRONT LACKS
OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 70 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. FARTHER EAST...A SECOND
BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED TO THE SAME DEEP TROUGH ENTERS THE REGION AS
A WEAK COLD FRONT NEAR 30N27W AND EXTENDS SOUTHWEST TO
23N37W...BECOMING A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO NEAR 20N50W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARIES. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES FROM 18N55W TO 12N58W SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 51W AND 55W. A SHEAR AXIS
IS WEST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 15N57W WSW INTO THE CARIBBEAN
SEA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 25N26W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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