[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220458
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED DEC 22 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0415 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE LIBERIA COAST NEAR 7N11W TO 5N30W 5N46W...INTO
NORTHEASTERN FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 4N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 10N
BETWEEN 39W AND 50W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 50W
AND 53W INCLUDING IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS
FROM NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL INTO EASTERN FRENCH GUIANA.
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WEAKENING AND SOME
DEVELOPING...COVER THE AREA FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN
16W AND 22W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ALSO FROM
4N TO 5N BETWEEN 24W AND 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG 64W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SPANS THE AREA BETWEEN 80W
ALONG FLORIDA AND 110W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. A SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 22N64W TO 27N74W...
TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N83W OFF THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST...TO THE LOWER TEXAS GULF COAST.

IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 40W AND 65W...AND INTO THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN BETWEEN 40W AND 80W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N45W
TO 25N50W TO 20N56W...ACROSS ANTIGUA. A SURFACE TROUGH
CONTINUES FROM ANTIGUA TO 15N66W AND 14N69W. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N41W TO 27N43W TO 20N56W. COLD-AIR
STRATIFORM CLOUDS COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N
TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 14N TO 15N BETWEEN 65W
AND 69W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN THE
FRONT AND 68W...WITH SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 16 FEET TO 27 FEET.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 13N60W...ABOUT 50 NM TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF SAINT VINCENT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
16N54W TO 15N57W...CURVING TO THE LOW CENTER...ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN TRINIDAD TO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 10N62W.
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N TO 15N BETWEEN
59W AND 61W. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND WEAKENING
PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 61W AND 63W. UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT TO
OCCUR...AND CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS
SYSTEM WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL AND WINDS ACROSS SECTIONS OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS AND MUCH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 13N72W 16N75W.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
COVER THE AREA FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 71W AND 75W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE
EAST OF 20W ACROSS AFRICA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS INLAND FROM
SOUTHERN MOROCCO...ACROSS THE WESTERN SAHARA...INTO THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN NEAR 22N20W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N9W IN COASTAL
MOROCCO...TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE WESTERN SAHARA...
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CANARY ISLANDS TO 29N25W. A STATIONARY
FRONT CONTINUES FROM 29N25W TO 33N35W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 15N TO THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN 22W AND 42W. THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
MOVES AROUND A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N36W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

MT




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