[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201201
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON DEC 20 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE SIERRA LEONE COAST NEAR 9N13W TO 6N20W 5N30W TO 5N44W.
IT IS NOT EASY TO LOCATE THE ITCZ AFTER 5N44W. SCATTERED STRONG
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN 19W AND
31W...AND IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF FRENCH GUIANA AND SURINAME.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
TO THE SOUTH OF 3N BETWEEN 10W AND 14W...AND WITHIN 60 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 9N31W 5N35W...TO THE EQUATOR AT 39W...AND TO
THE SOUTH OF 3N BETWEEN 40W AND 45W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
14N50W TO A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 11N53W...
TO 6N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 9N TO 13N BETWEEN 46W AND 53W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CONTINUES AFTER THE LATEST
TROUGH HAS MOVED ACROSS THE AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG
24N94W 28N91W...BEYOND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA. A SURFACE TROUGH GOES
FROM THE NORTHERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO TO 21N97W
TO COASTAL MEXICO NEAR 24N98W. MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE TO THE
SOUTH OF 25N TO THE WEST OF 93W. COLD-AIR STRATIFORM CLOUDS
REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF 28N TO THE EAST OF 88W.

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 60W INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...AND INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...

A LONGWAVE TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PASSES THROUGH NORTH
CAROLINA TO 32N76W TO 26N74W TOWARD NORTHERN COASTAL HAITI.
THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N66W
TO 25N66W...CUTTING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
TO HAITI. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM HAITI TO
JAMAICA TO THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. CLUSTERS OF LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 24N65W TO THE EASTERN DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N70W TO THE
VENEZUELA COASTAL WATERS THAT ARE FROM 11N TO 12N ALONG 71W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 30N
BETWEEN 52W AND 62W...AND WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 30N58W 24N62W 20N66W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND WITHIN 30 NM
TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 20N66W...THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE...TO 15N68W 11N71W AT THE VENEZUELA COAST. GALE-FORCE
WINDS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 28N WITHIN
300 NM TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT. SEA HEIGHTS ARE RANGING
FROM 10 FEET TO 15 FEET.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

CLOUDS AND RAINSHOWERS COVER THE WATERS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 58W AND 67W. A SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL
TROUGH IS ALONG 65W/66W FROM 11N TO 17N.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A LONGWAVE TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PASSES THROUGH 32N25W
TO 25N29W TO 20N40W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO
THE SOUTH OF 14N45W 17N40W 26N20W BEYOND THE WESTERN SAHARA AND
MAURITANIA. A COLD FRONT IS ALONG 32N15W TO THE WESTERN CANARY
ISLANDS...TO 22N27W. A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 22N27W TO 20N35W
19N40W 18N49W. BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE ENTIRE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES
AROUND A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N45W...
FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 35W AND 60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

MT




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