[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190535
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN DEC 19 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N11W 7N20W 6N30W 9N40W 9N50W
6N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG
THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 10W-13W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 1N-5N
BETWEEN 24W-27W...FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 24W-27W...FROM 6N-9N
BETWEEN 30W-33W...AND FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 37W-45W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 38W-46W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ EXTENDING FROM 14N49W TO
7N48W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 6N-14N BETWEEN 47W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM COCOA BEACH FLORIDA
TO SARASOTA FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 29N81W 27N82W
22N90W 18N94W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE N
GULF OF MEXICO N OF 26N BETWEEN 83W-93W. 10-15 KT N WINDS ARE N
OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 40'S AND 50'S N OF THE
FRONT ALONG THE N GULF COAST STATES. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W
SUPPORTING THE SURFACE FRONT. EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE OUT OF
THE GULF IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND IT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM E CUBA TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
ALONG 21N75W 14N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
TROUGH. FURTHER E...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF ARUBA
FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 67W-70W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS... AND PUERTO RICO FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 60W-70W.
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA
AND CENTRAL AMERICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS PRODUCING
SW UPPER LEVEL WINDS. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER
SOUTH AMERICA WHILE STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA
AND THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO
RETROGRADE E TO HISPANIOLA AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH
CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N77W TO COCOA BEACH FLORIDA NEAR
29N81W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE FRONT. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST E OF THE BAHAMAS PRODUCING OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FROM 21N-32N BETWEEN 70W-78W. A 1018 MB HIGH
IS FURTHER E NEAR 27N61W. A 998 MB LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC
NEAR 33N35W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S ALONG 32N29W 27N30W 21N40W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE FRONT FROM 27N-32N
BETWEEN 25W-28W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 45W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE
E ATLANTIC E OF 45W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE W ATLANTIC COLD
FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 32N68W TO TO E CUBA WITH
CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA




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