[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160554
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU DEC 16 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 09N13W 04N30W 07N50W 06N56W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-09N BETWEEN 12W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERY DRY AIR IS PRESENT ALOFT OVER
THE GULF WITH WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW PROVIDING FOR AN OVERALL
STABLE ATMOSPHERE THIS EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE RIDGE
REMAINS IN CONTROL ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EASTWARD INTO
THE W ATLC THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. S TO SW WINDS TO 25 KT
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS COAST EARLY FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT IS NOTED ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN THAT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS
FROM THE SE CONUS AND FLORIDA PENINSULA OVER MUCH OF THE NW
CARIBBEAN N OF 16N W OF 74W. OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS PERSIST
AS A RESULT...WITH MOSTLY BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS NOTED ON
SHORTWAVE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. OVER THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...A STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM ANGUILLA
TO 16N72W THEN TO THE NORTHERN COLOMBIA COAST NEAR 11N74W.
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO
PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE BOUNDARY. ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGER EAST OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND LESSER ANTILLES DUE TO LIGHT E-NE
TRADE WIND FLOW. THE PRESENCE OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING ALONG
60W S OF 14N AND ELEVATED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IS
ALSO ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...
TRINIDAD...TOBAGO...AND PORTIONS OF NE VENEZUELA THIS EVENING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE W ATLC WATERS REMAINING MAINLY N OF 24N AND W OF 55W
THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
32N50W AND EXTENDING SW ALONG 25N53W TO ANGUILLA NEAR 18N63W AND
INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING
WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT THAT ARE LIKELY ENHANCED
DUE TO DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WITH AXIS ALONG 46W. THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED
OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 30N82W. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERED NEAR 34N26W CONTINUES TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE EASTERN
ATLC E OF 35W DRIVING A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA THAT EXTENDS A COLD FRONT ALONG 31N16W
ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 28N16W TO 21N22W. THIS FRONT HAS
VERY LITTLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT...THEREFORE
PRECIPITATION IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT REMAINS VERY LIMITED.
HOWEVER...A PULSE OF ENERGY MORE CLOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW SUPPORTS A 1002 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 32N27W THAT
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ISOLATED TSTMS FROM
26N-34N BETWEEN 19W-27W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



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