[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 142332
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE DEC 14 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 9N28W 6N40W 2N51W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE
ITCZ BETWEEN 32W-36W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN
22W-29W AND WITHIN 225 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 41W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE NW ATLC REMAINING
OVER THE U.S. E OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE
GULF TO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE W ATLC. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR AT THE UPPER LEVELS CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE ENTIRE GULF WATERS WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVERING THE E GULF S OF 27N E OF 90W.
SURFACE RIDGING IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT EASTWARD ANCHORED BY A
1026 MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI WITH A 1024 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. COOL DRY AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE
GULF AND WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AND INTO WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE
NW CARIBBEAN N OF 16N W OF 75W WITH A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERING
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC NEAR SANTO DOMINGO TO 16N73W BECOMING A SHEAR AXIS
ALONG 13N76W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR MONTERIA. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT/SHEAR AXIS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF A LINE FROM THE E TIP OF
CUBA ALONG 15N78W TO THE NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA BORDER. A BROAD
UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR TRINIDAD
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN DRAWING TROPICAL
MOISTURE N OVER THE E/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO ACROSS PUERTO RICO
AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE E CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MODERATE
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT GIVING FAR E CARIBBEAN AND
THE LESSER ANTILLES FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE E U.S. SEABOARD
COVERING THE W ATLC W OF 60W AND IS SUPPORTING A STRONG COLD
FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N59W ALONG
24N62W TO OVER HISPANIOLA AND BECOMING STATIONARY INTO THE
CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N69W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 25N AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITHIN 220 NM E OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. BROKEN/OVERCAST
COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W
ATLC W OF THE FRONT TO 80W. THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR TRINIDAD EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS N TO BEYOND
32N54W ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE FRONT. A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC MOSTLY N OF THE
REGION. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC N OF 15N
BETWEEN 22W-47W SUPPORTING A SECOND COLD FRONT ENTERING THE E
ATLC NEAR 32N26W EXTENDING ALONG 24N29W TO 20N34W DISSIPATING TO
NEAR 18N42W. AN UPPER RIDGE JUST TO THE E ALONG 16W IS ENHANCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 120/150 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 23N
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90/120 NM E OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW/NAR



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