[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141147
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE DEC 14 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 10N31W 05N43W 02N51W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-12N BETWEEN 24W-35W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 43W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DRY AND SUBSIDENT NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES ACROSS THE GULF
WEST OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING LOCATED OVER THE MID-ATLC STATES
AND W ATLC N OF 26N. THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SUPPORTS A SURFACE
RIDGE THAT COVERS A MAJORITY OF GULF ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH
CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. NORTHERLY WINDS TO 20 KT ARE
OCCURRING OVER THE EASTERN GULF THIS MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE SLIDES
EASTWARD. LOOKING AHEAD...BY WEDNESDAY SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS
EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN GULF AS ANOTHER FRONTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE SE CONUS AND EASTERN TEXAS. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL THEN ENTER THE NW GULF WATERS BY LATE
FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS
THE W ATLC THAT DIPS TO 26N AND SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT
CROSSES HISPANIOLA AND INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N73W
THEN BECOMES A SHEAR LINE EXTENDING SW TO EASTERN PANAMA NEAR
09N78W. WEST OF THE SHEAR LINE...NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
DOMINATES WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N
OF 14N W OF 77W. IN THE VICINITY OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND
SHEAR LINE...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARIES...INCLUDING INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF HISPANIOLA. ELSEWHERE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED IN THE WESTERN TROPICAL
ATLC EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ALONG 11N BETWEEN 54W-90W AND IS
PROVIDING THE BASIN WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS ENHANCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND
THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS FROM 08N-12N BETWEEN 71W-76W...
INCLUDING LAKE MARACAIBO.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD OF THE U.S. WITH TROUGHING DIPPING TO 26N OVER THE W
ATLC WATERS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT
MOSTLY DRY AIR AND W-SW FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES W OF 63W. THIS
TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA
NEAR 32N62W AND EXTENDS SW TO 23N67W THEN BECOMES STATIONARY TO
HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE EAST OF THE FRONT
IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER A LARGE AREA FROM 18N-32N
BETWEEN THE FRONT AND 58W. WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS ALSO
MAXIMIZED NORTH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 54W-62W. ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 50W AND OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 40W-58W. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINS THE DRIVING UPPER LEVEL FEATURE FOR A 1002 MB
SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 32N27W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM
THE LOW ALONG 26N30W TO 21N41W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRING
WITHIN THE AREA FROM 22N-32N BETWEEN THE FRONT AND 20W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE ALSO OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING NW OF THE COLD FRONT FROM 25N-32N BETWEEN 30W-38W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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