[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 132338
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON DEC 13 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 5N20W 6N35W 4N44W 2N51W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 20W-34W AND WITHIN 120/150
NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 23W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE NW ATLC BUT A
PORTION REMAINS OVER THE U.S. E OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SWEEPING THE GULF N OF 24N ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE
W ATLC. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE GULF WATERS. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
OVER THE GULF ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES AND WITH A
1028 MB HIGH OVER E MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO USHERING IN A VERY COOL
AND DRY CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS. THIS COOL DRY AIR WILL REMAIN
OVER THE GULF FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS S RETURN FLOW WILL
INCREASE OVER THE NW GULF BY LATE TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CUBA
NEAR HOLGUIN OVER THE W TIP OF JAMAICA TO INLAND OVER HONDURAS
NEAR THE NICARAGUA BORDER TO OVER SOUTHERN GUATEMALA. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 45 NM SE OF THE FRONT AND BROKEN TO
OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF THE FRONT. SW FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE NW
CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT THUS
LIMITING ANY DEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED
IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 8N57W DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE N OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
TO ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO WITH A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING
FROM PANAMA NEAR 9N79W ALONG 14N78W TO SW HAITI WITH DENSE
LOW/MID CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE SHEAR AXIS. THE E CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT GIVING THE AREA FAIR WEATHER
THIS EVENING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE E U.S. SEABOARD
AND IS SUPPORTING A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE W
ATLC NEAR 32N68W ALONG 26N70W ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS INTO
THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA NEAR HOLGUIN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 30N
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 30 NM E OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W
ATLC W OF THE FRONT. THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 8N57W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS JUST E OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES TO BEYOND 32N59W ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM THE N COAST OF
HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W TO 25N61W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS TO
THE SE EXTENDING FROM ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
ALONG 20N60W TO 22N59W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITHIN 60
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC N OF 26N BETWEEN 41W-55W ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH
OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE
E/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-50W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE JUST
TO THE E ALONG ALONG 24W. THE UPPER RIDGE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS N OF 29N BETWEEN 24W-35W. A WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERS THE E
ATLC NEAR 32N21W EXTENDING ALONG 27N28W THEN W TO 25N42W WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TO THE S EXTENDING FROM 24N38W TO 22N42W
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW




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