[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 112357
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT DEC 11 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 08N20W 09N26W 05N40W 03N51W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ ANALYZED FROM
14N22W TO 05N27W AND IS LIKELY REFLECTIVE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLC. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THE AREA BOUNDED BY 04N10W TO 04N32W
TO 19N32W TO 04N10W TO 14N23W TO 14N17W TO 04N10W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC... A 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA NEAR TAMPA AT 28N82W. 10-15 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS COVERS
THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF N OF 24N BETWEEN 83W-93W. A COLD FRONT IS JUST
INLAND OF THE TEXAS COAST MOVING SE INTO THE GULF. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE GULF. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS N OF 28N WITH 70-90 UPPER LEVEL WINDS. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT... THE COLD
FRONT TO EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN 24
HOURS WITH SHOWERS WITHIN 15 NM OF THE FRONT. ALSO EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION NW OF THE FRONT TOGETHER WITH
GALE FORCE WINDS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF E PANAMA
FROM 08N-10N BETWEEN 77W-79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER INLAND SOUTH AMERICA FROM THE EQUATOR TO
11N BETWEEN 50W-80W. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE ALSO OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...HISPANIOLA...AND THE SW CARIBBEAN. 10-15 KT NE WINDS
ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W WHILE 10-15 KT E WINDS ARE
OVER THE E GULF E OF 80W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS S OF
12N E OF 80W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1014 MB LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR
33N79W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO THE BAHAMAS
ALONG 27N79W 23N76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE
TROUGH. A 1011 BM LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 27N62W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO
26N60W 20N65W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE LOW
FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 52W-58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO WITHIN
30 NM OF THE TROUGH. A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
26N38W. THE TAIL END OF A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO OVER THE E
ATLANTIC W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS ALONG 32N19W 26N22W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL
FLOW IS N OF 20N W OF 40W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC E OF 40W WITH A TROUGH AXIS FROM 32N20W TO 20N25W TO
5N40W. EXPECT...A COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 32N79W TO S FLORIDA
IN 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS WITHIN 15 NM OF THE FRONT. ALSO EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION NW OF THE FRONT TOGETHER WITH
GALE FORCE WINDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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