[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111146
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT DEC 11 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM GUINEA NEAR 10N14W ALONG 6N23W
4N35W 3N52W. NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 4-13N BETWEEN 11W-21W...AND FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 21W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GULF OF MEXICO REMAINS UNDER MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING AS A DRY AIRMASS COVERS THE BASIN IN MAINLY WLY FLOW
ALOFT. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NE TO SW WITH LIGHT
ANTI-CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW AROUND IT. STRONGER SLY WINDS UP TO
20 KTS ARE ALONG THE TEXAS COASTLINE. THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST
AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE NW GULF LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY. AREAS OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL AND NW PORTIONS OF THE BASIN. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE
UNTIL THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT APPROACHES THE TEXAS COAST.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IN MAINLY SWLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE NW
CARIBBEAN MAINTAINING FAIR CONDITIONS BESIDES A FEW PATCHES OF
LOW CLOUDS. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEGUN TO DIE DOWN AS THE UPPER
LEVEL JET PREVIOUSLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN HAS LIFTED N.
HOWEVER...AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE STILL REMAINS FROM PANAMA
TO HISPANIOLA. SURFACE TROUGHING S OF HISPANIOLA AS WELL A SHEAR
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 16N75W TO A 1009 MB LOW OVER PANAMA NEAR
9N78W CONTINUES TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM NW OF
THE BOUNDARY. THE AXIS SEPARATES STRONG NLY FLOW TO THE W...AND
TRADEWIND ELY FLOW TO THE E. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS
EXPERIENCING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER NE VENEZUELA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE FAR WRN ATLC IS SUPPORTING
A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
ACROSS THE W ATLC. A 1014 MB LOW IS CENTERED N OF THE SE BAHAMAS
NEAR 26N73W. NELY WINDS UP TO 25 KTS ARE NW OF THE CENTER. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH THE LOW CENTER ALONG 27N68W
26N73W 24N76W 27N79W 32N80W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM
OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED N OF THE MONA
PASSAGE NEAR 24N66W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS TO THE S ALONG
19N69W AND S OF HISPANIOLA TO NEAR 16N75W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY
BOUNDARY EXTENDS N OF THE LOW CENTER AND OUT OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA ALONG 27N63W 29N55W 32N49W. THIS SYSTEM LIES UNDERNEATH AN
AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE W AND
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
CONTINUING NE TO THE AZORES ISLANDS. THE COMBINATION OF UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS N OF 25N BETWEEN 53W-67W. FARTHER
E...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR
28N41W PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS. AN OCCLUDED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR THE AZORES
ISLANDS CAUSING CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE FAR E ATLC N OF
27N. A SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N20W TO 27N25W
DEPICTING THE LOCATION OF THE WIND SHIFT. THIS SYSTEM IS
SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 6N47W TO E OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND NWD TO THE AZORES. THERE IS NO SHOWER
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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