[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 102355
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI DEC 10 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA NEAR 10N14W
EXTENDING WESTWARD ALONG 7N20W 6N30W 4N40W 2N50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N TO 10N EAST
OF 25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
LIGHT SURFACE ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
ACROSS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION THIS EVENING...AS A SURFACE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE ROAMS ACROSS THE REGION. MOSTLY DRY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS PRODUCT ALSO
INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE
SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO INTRODUCE THE
NEXT RELATIVELY STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE NW GULF BY SATURDAY
LATE AFTERNOON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CENTRAL AND FAR SW CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED BY
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND DIFFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT SUPPORTING A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT CROSSES HISPANIOLA AND ENTERS THE N CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN ALONG 18N73W TO 15N76W. THEN...IT CONTINUES SOUTH AS A
SHEAR LINE TO A 1009 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 10N77W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY. SIMILAR
ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW AND PREVIOUS
RAINFALLS ASSOCIATED TO IT HAVE GREATLY AFFECTED THE COASTAL
COMMUNITIES IN PANAMA AND COLOMBIA S OF 10N E OF 79W. NORTHERLY
WINDS UP TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED WEST OF A SURFACE TROUGH AND
SHEAR LINE AXIS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND SW FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...EASTERLY
TRADES TO 20 KT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS A WESTERN ATLC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SKIRTS TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JETSTREAK IS ACROSS THE SW ATLC
DRAWING MOISTURE ALOFT FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO THE WEST
ATLC SUPPORTING SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE SHOWERS N OF 22N
BETWEEN 58W AND 66W. WITHIN THIS REGION OF CONVECTION...A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE AREA OF  DISCUSSION NEAR 32N53W TO
25N66W...BECOMING OCCLUDED TO A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 23N69W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER TO HISPANIOLA
NEAR 19N71W. NW OF THE LOW CENTER...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED
FROM NEAR 27N72W TO 50 NM OFFSHORE OF JACKSONVILLE
FLORIDA...THEN...NORTH TO 60 NM OFF THE COAST OF CAPE ISLAND IN
NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 32N78W. SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. FARTHER EAST OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC MAINTAINING
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS E OF 50W. AN OCCLUDED LOW CONTINUES TO
SPIN E OF THE AZORES SUPPORTING A SET OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS N
OF THE AREA. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE REMAINING N OF 30N
BETWEEN 18W AND 25W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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