[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081110
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED DEC 08 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE COASTS OF SIERRA LEONE/LIBERIA NEAR 7N11W TO 6N20W
5N30W 4N38W. THE ITCZ IS ILL-DEFINED TO THE WEST OF 38W. THE
ITCZ DOES NOT SHOW UP IN THE SCATTEROMETER DATA DUE TO NO
BOUNDARY OF OPPOSING WINDS OR CONFLUENT WIND FLOW. RAINSHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 44W AND
52W IN AN AREA OF SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL WIND SPEED CONVERGENCE.
OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 10W AND 28W...FROM 5N
TO 7N BETWEEN 30W AND 42W...AND FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 50W AND
60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 60W...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA OF ARKANSAS...LOUISIANA...AND THE NORTHWESTERN GULF
COASTAL WATERS. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT IS RIGHT
AT THE COAST...SET TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 90W AND 96W. THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT NOW IS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
SUPPORTS A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N63W TO 27N68W. THE TROUGH ALSO SUPPORTS ONE REMNANT CLOUD
LINE IS ALONG 31N57W 25N65W TO HAITI NEAR 20N73W...AND A SECOND
REMNANT CLOUD LINE IS ALONG 31N55W 26N60W 20N66W. A SURFACE
RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE FLORIDA KEYS
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. ANOTHER RIDGE GOES FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO CENTRAL HONDURAS.
A SURFACE TROUGH WAS ORIENTED FROM EAST TEXAS...ALONG THE TEXAS
GULF COAST IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...AND THEN WITHIN 60 NM OF
AND PARALLEL TO THE MEXICO COAST...INTO THE NORTHERN ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO
THE EAST OF THE LINE THAT GOES FROM EAST CENTRAL NICARAGUA
BEYOND HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
IS NEAR 9N78W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. STRONG
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE WATERS AND COASTAL
PLAINS TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN COLOMBIA NEAR 76W AND PANAMA
NEAR 80W. A REMNANT CLOUD LINE EXTENDS FROM THE AREA OF THE
1009 MB LOW CENTER TO 16N70W AND PUERTO RICO. RAINSHOWERS ARE
FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W...AND ELSEWHERE TO THE
SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AROUND A TROUGH
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N24W TO 18N27W TO 12N35W. THE CYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 12N TO THE EAST
OF 45W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1003 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N17W TO 26N30W AND CURVING TO 28N38W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 14W AND
28W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AROUND A RIDGE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 33N42W 27N48W 21N59W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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