[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061712
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON DEC 06 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 4N30W 4N51W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN
20W-23W...AND FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 34W-45W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF GUYANA FROM 6N-9N
BETWEEN 56W-59W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM W CUBA NEAR 22N80W TO
THE N COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N88W TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE AT 21N96W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO CENTRAL
MEXICO ALONG 19N96W 21N100W. THE FRONT IS MOVING S WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE N OF THE FRONT OVER THE GULF
WATERS...EXCEPT OVER THE NW GULF. 15-20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N
OF THE FRONT WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION.
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED TO THE 40'S OVER THE N GULF STATES. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE
GULF PRODUCING MOSTLY WESTERLY FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE.
EXPECT...THE TAIL END OF THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHERN
BAY OF CAMPECHE IN 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER W CUBA...AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SEE
ABOVE. A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER E PANAMA NEAR 9N77W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 77W-79W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER BELIZE...HONDURAS...THE GULF OF
HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...AND COSTA RICA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ALSO OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE S CARIBBEAN FROM 12N-15N
BETWEEN 60W-76W. 15-20 KT N WINDS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF
80W. 15-20 KT TRADE WINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN E OF 80W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS PRODUCING SOUTHERLY FLOW.  SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER
THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 15N E OF 80W. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA.
EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM E CUBA TO BELIZE IN 24
HOURS WITH SHOWERS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N60W TO THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS AND W CUBA ALONG 26N70W 22N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM N OF FRONT. BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NW OF THE FRONT. A 1019 MB HIGH IS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A 985 GALE LOW IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR THE AZORES AT 37N24W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 7N40W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER THE
ATLANTIC S OF 20N. ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC FROM 20N-30N.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... FOR THE ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO
MOVE E AND EXTEND FROM 32N57W TO E CUBA WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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