[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060534
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON DEC 06 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 9N13W TO 4N31W...TO THE
BRAZIL/FRENCH GUIANA BORDER NEAR 4N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 3N TO 7N
BETWEEN 17W AND 21W...FROM 2N TO 9N BETWEEN 30W AND 42W...
AND FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 43W AND 53W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 11N.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE WEST CENTRAL
GULF WATERS...CURVING SOUTHWARD TO THE MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR
19N. A STATIONARY FRONT BANKS AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO
FROM THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 19N TOWARD THE TEXAS BIG BEND.
THE LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS THAT ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT COVER THE GULF WATERS FROM THE FLORIDA
STRAITS TO 27N BETWEEN 80W AND THE TEXAS/MEXICO COASTS...AND
FROM 20N TO 23N TO THE WEST OF 95W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SPANS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER
TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE OCCURRING FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 65W AND 67W IN AN AREA OF
THE REMNANT 700 MB INVERTED TROUGH OF 24 HOURS AGO. CLOUDS AND
RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 71W AND 77W...
INCLUDING INTO WESTERN COLOMBIA TO 4N...IN AN AREA OF A LOW
LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH. LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
LINE FROM 19N71W IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 17N76W INTO
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. THESE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION
ARE PART OF THE REMNANT CLOUD LINE FROM THE LAST 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE CURRENT ATLANTIC COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO 29N70W
ABACO ISLAND AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND BEYOND SOUTH FLORIDA
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 45 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT. COLD-AIR STRATIFORM CLOUDS ARE
OVER THE WATERS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT. RAINSHOWERS ARE
TO THE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 40W AND 45W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF 20N62W 24N40W
BEYOND 31N17W. THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MERGES WITH THE BROAD
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW THAT HAS PERSISTED
DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS...TO THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF
45W. BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH
OF 25N TO THE EAST OF 40W. NO FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS TO THE SOUTH
OF 30N. THE SOUTHERNMOST POINT OF THE LONE FRONT REACHES 31N15W.
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AROUND A 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 23N51W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 17N TO 31N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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