[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN DEC 05 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 7N30W 5N52W 6N60W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM
5N-8N BETWEEN 24W-33W...AND FROM 3N-11N BETWEEN 45W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING S OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 26N80W 25N83W
26N96W THEN SOUTHWESTWARD TO 22N97W OVER MEXICO. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 20 NM OF THE FRONT. 20-25 KT N TO NE WINDS
ARE N OF THE FRONT. SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
BE OCCURRING OVER THE GULF AND SURROUNDING LAND MASSES DURING
THE NEXT TWO DAYS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE
GULF EARLIER IS NOW EVOLVED INTO PRIMARILY ZONAL FLOW AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SITUATED WSW
TO ENE NEAR US GULF COAST.  SOUTH OF 28N...STRONG SUBSIDENCE
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT CROSS
THE ENTIRE GULF BY LATE MONDAY.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN OVER NORTHERN
VENEZUELA AND THE ABC ISLANDS HAS DIMINISHED SOME TODAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE STILL PRESENT NEAR THE ABC ISLANDS AND THE
LESSER ANTILLES AS SEEN IN THE FRENCH WEST INDIES RADAR
COMPOSITE AND THE BARBADOS RADAR IMAGERY.  ADDITIONALLY...A
1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER E PANAMA NEAR 9N78W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE LOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
BELIZE...HONDURAS...THE GULF OF HONDURAS...AND NICARAGUA FUELED
BY BRISK AND MODERATELY MOIST NE TRADEWINDS. 15-20 KT E TO NE
TRADE WINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
RIDGING IS PRESENT ALONG 12N PRODUCING SW FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS
ADVECTED TOWARD THE NE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE COLD FRONT
DESCRIBED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION SHOULD REACH THE NW
CARIBBEAN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH 20 KT N WINDS.  ONLY MODERATE
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION MAY BE EXPECTED IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
FRONT AS LITTLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N68W TO
SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR 26N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF
THE FRONT. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NW OF THE FRONT. SW
GALE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 29N
BETWEEN 65W AND 72W...AS SEEN FROM THE 1518Z ASCAT PASS EARLIER
TODAY. A SHEAR LINE FROM AN OLD COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC ALONG 32N46W 23N56W TO HISPANIOLA.  THIS FEATURE IS
BECOMING INDISTINCT AND FEW SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. A
SECOND COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS
ALONG 32N16W 26N22W. FEW SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FRONT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE THAT IS PRODUCING WINDS 20 TO 30 KT N OF
27N AND E OF 40W.  BETWEEN THE TWO FRONTAL FEATURES...ONLY WEAK
RIDGING EXISTS AND THUS SURFACE WINDS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
TROPICAL AND SUBTROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC ARE LESS THAN 20 KT. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC
FROM 32N61W TO 22N71W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED IN THE
TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC NEAR 12N45W AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
DOMINATES THE REGION SOUTH OF 25N.  EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THE W ATLANTIC FRONT TO QUICKLY PROGRESS EASTWARD WITH
WINDS BELOW GALE FORCE AND THE OTHER TWO SURFACE FEATURES TO
DISSIPATE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LANDSEA



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