[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 032335
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI DEC 03 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 5N20W 4N40W 4N52W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 41W-48W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 35W-41W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO INLAND OVER FRENCH GUIANA
FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 52W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED ON THE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 28N90W.
10-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF
MEXICO. BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN 85W-90W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BETWEEN 80W-83W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO
FROM 16N-24N BETWEEN 93W-98W. COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES OVER
THE E GULF WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 50'S OVER N FLORIDA.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS....AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF
WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXETNDS FROM E CUBA NEAR 21N75W TO
S OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS NEAR 19N80W. A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES TO HONDURAS AT 16N85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
HONDURAS...THE GULF OF HONDURAS...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND E
CUBA. A 1009 MB LOW IS OVER E PANAMA NEAR 9N78W DRIFTING E.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA...COSTA
RICA...THE SW CARIBBEAN...AND N COLOMBIA FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN
72W-82W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER TRINIDAD
AND NE VENEZUELA FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 60W-65W. IN ADDITION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 17N-20N
BETWEEN 60W-65W. 15-20 KT TRADE WINDS ARE E OF THE FRONT WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS N OF COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 65W.
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE S CARIBBEAN S 15N.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
THE FRONT TO EXTEND FROM HISPANIOLA TO NICARAGUA WITH SHOWERS.
ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWERS OVER THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 14N.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N59W TO E CUBA ALONG
23N70W 21N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF FRONT TO
INCLUDE THE S BAHAMAS. A WEAK 1015 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC NEAR 24N61W. A 986 MB GALE LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 35N35W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW ALONG
32N29W 28N30W 18N40W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF
FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC ALONG 32N24W
27N25W 17N36W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE FRONT
FROM 23N-30N BETWEEN 21W-26W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM
OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-80W. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS BETWEEN 30W-50W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF 30W WITH AXIS ALONG 20W. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOR THE THREE ATLANTIC COLD FRONTS TO MOVE E
WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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