[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 311803
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE AUG 31 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL AT 31/1800 UTC WAS ESTIMATED NEAR
21.5N 68.5W...OR ABOUT 170 NM TO THE E OF GRAND TURK
ISLAND...MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 12 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 940 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 116 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
18N TO 25N BETWEEN 65W AND 71W.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA AT 31/1500 UTC IS NEAR 16.3N
56.8W...MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 21 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC
AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N TO
20N BETWEEN 54W AND 60W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N27W 11N29W 5N29W. A
1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS EMBEDDED IN THE WAVE NEAR 10N28W.
THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10-15 KT. SCATTERED STRONG
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 6N TO 13N BETWEEN 29W AND
36W. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM WEST AFRICA OVER GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR
12N15W TO 9N21W...RESUMING WEST OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 8N34W
CONTINUING NW ALONG 9N41W TO 12N47W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF WEST
AFRICA E OF 20W FROM 7N TO 17N.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OVER SE TEXAS
AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS GENERATING DIFFLUENCE
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF...PUSHING A
RATHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE SOUTH INTO THE GULF...WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR PANAMA CITY TO MEXICO
NEAR TAMPICO. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN...ESPECIALLY E
OF 90W...WITH THE MOST CONVECTIVE AREA FROM 22N TO 30N BETWEEN
82W AND 90W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SW
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS
SURROUNDING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA N OF 20N. A NEARLY STATIONARY
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 95W S
OF 23N ENHANCING SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS W OF 93W S OF 23N. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THIS
AREA OF CONVECTION WILL LINGER OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN N OF 16N BETWEEN 64W AND 69W CONTINUES TO
BE THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN AS HURRICANE EARL EXTENDS MULTIPLE
BANDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FOCUSED
OVER THE MONA PASSAGE...PUERTO RICO...AND THE US/UK VIRGIN
ISLANDS. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY MOVE NNW OUT THE
AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE BOXED AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. THE FAR SW BASIN S
OF 11N W OF 76W...DUE TO CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE ITCZ EXTENDING
ACROSS PANAMA TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. DRY AIR ALOFT IS SEEN
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
THIS UPPER LEVEL AIRMASS IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR NW BASIN W OF 82W N OF 19N...EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE PROMINENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY W OF 71W
ASSOCIATED TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DELVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLC. THIS FEATURE IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO THE WESTERN ATLC. HOWEVER...HURRICANE EARL IS TO
THE SE OF THIS AREA OF SUBSIDENCE AND IS APPROACHING THIS REGION
WITH CONVECTION...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR MORE DETAILS. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ATLC...AROUND A 1021
MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N43W. DRY SAHARAN AIR ALOFT IS ALSO
NOTED ON SATELLITE VISIBLE E OF 50W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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