[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 310604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE AUG 31 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE AT 31/0300 UTC IS NEAR
41.3N 47.1W...MOVING EASTWARD 14 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS. DANIELLE HAS BECOME POST-TROPICAL. THE FORECAST
IS FOR DANIELLE TO WEAKEN SLOWLY...AND THEN BE ABSORBED BY
A LARGE NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS IN THE FAR
NORTH ATLANTIC.

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL AT 31/0600 UTC WAS ESTIMATED FROM
SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO RADAR NEAR 20.0N 66.3W...OR ABOUT 95 NM/
170 KM TO THE NORTH OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO...MOVING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD 12 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
938 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 115 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 140 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE LATEST PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 64W
AND 67W...AFFECTING PUERTO RICO AND THE ISLANDS THAT ARE TO THE
EAST OF PUERTO RICO...AND THAT PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 25N TO 26N BETWEEN 63W
AND 67W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER
POSSIBLE SHOWERS COVER THE REST OF THE AREA FROM 10N TO 27N
BETWEEN 58W AND 70W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEA.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA AT 31/0600 UTC IS NEAR 15.5N
51.8W...MOVING WESTWARD 20 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED
STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N TO 19N BETWEEN
50W AND 53W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W/26W TO THE SOUTH OF
18N...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 10N. IT IS NOT EASY TO DIFFERENTIATE WHICH
NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS JUST RELATED TO THE ITCZ AND WHICH JUST
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...

9N22W 10N31W 13N38W...11N44W 11N50W 14N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 11N BETWEEN
20W AND 40W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 6N TO 12N
BETWEEN 10W AND 18W NEAR AFRICA...AND FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 44W
AND 53W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL GULF WATERS. ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 23N TO 27N TO THE WEST OF 87W.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM HONDURAS
TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO
AND NEARBY COASTAL WATERS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM THE WATERS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC TO THE ACAPULCO
AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM HONDURAS TO
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO
AND NEARBY COASTAL WATERS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.  SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THIS AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN CUBA AND THE
CAYMAN ISLAND...ADDING TO THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA IN GENERAL. AN UPPER LEVEL
INVERTED TROUGH IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA ALONG
77W/78W TO THE SOUTH OF 14N. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN COLOMBIA AND THE WATERS FROM 8N TO
15N BETWEEN 74W AND 81W. HURRICANE EARL IS THE BIG NEWS STORY IN
THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. CONDITIONS THAT ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH EARL ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE MORE AND MORE
DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH AN INCREASE IN WIND AND SEAS...AND
HAZARDOUS STORM SURGE AND ABUNDANT RAINFALL.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N56W TO 28N67W TO 23N72W
TOWARD THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE WATERS THAT ARE AROUND THE
BAHAMAS TO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA FROM 20N TO 27N BETWEEN 70W AND 84W. A SURFACE TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 32N48W TO 27N57W. HURRICANE EARL IS AFFECTING THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN. CONDITIONS THAT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH EARL ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE MORE AND MORE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH AN
INCREASE IN WIND AND SEAS...AND HAZARDOUS STORM SURGE AND
ABUNDANT RAINFALL. TROPICAL STORM FIONA IS ABOUT 940 NM TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HURRICANE EARL. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 32N48W 27N57W
TROUGH...MOVING AROUND A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 30N39W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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