[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310006
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON AUG 30 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE AT 30/2100 UTC IS NEAR
41.3N 49.0W...MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST 13 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 973 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLC.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 39N-43N BETWEEN 47W-52W.

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL AT 30/2100 UTC IS NEAR 19.3N
64.7W...OR ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM NE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 948 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 115 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. HIGH WINDS AND CONVECTION ARE AFFECTING
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
18N-21N BETWEEN 64W-67W. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-24N BETWEEN 61W-68W. PLEASE READ THE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM FIONA AT 30/2100 UTC IS NEAR 14.4N
48.7W...OR ABOUT 890 MI...1435 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
MOVING WEST AT 21 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1007 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 45 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS PRIMARILY
NW OF THE CENTER FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 49W-53W. PLEASE READ THE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W S OF 18N. BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING IS
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE WAVE NOTED ON SATELLITE DERIVED
WINDS. A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS EMBEDDED IN THE WAVE NEAR
14N26W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF THE
CENTER FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 26W-29W. A GOOD AMOUNT OF SAHARAN
DUST AND DRY AIR IS N OF 13N HAMPERING CONVECTION.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N16W
WESTWARD ALONG 6N26W TO 11N40W. THEN...IT RESUMES W OF FIONA
NEAR 11N50W TO 9N54W 13N58W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN
THE SPECIAL FEATURES AND TROPICAL WAVE SECTIONS...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 23W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN VIRGINIA NEAR 37N82W
PRODUCING E TO SE SURFACE FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RATHER LAX THUS WINDS ARE MOSTLY
10-15 KT. A GOOD AMOUNT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE HAS ADVECTED OVER
THE GULF FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND W ATLANTIC. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER S FLORIDA...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
...AND W CUBA FROM 21N-27N BETWEEN 80W-85W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 89W-93W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER E TEXAS NEAR 30N97W. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER W TENNESSEE NEAR 36N88W. UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE S OF THIS LOW IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION OVER THE NE GULF FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 85W-88W. EXPECT
...CONVECTION TO DRIFT W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE NE CARIBBEAN IS THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WITH MULTIPLE BANDS
OF HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH EARL NOW A
CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. INCLEMENT WEATHER WILL AFFECT THE AREA
FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 75W-82W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA
RICA TO GUATEMALA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN WEAK UPPER LEVEL
HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N71W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
OUTSIDE OF THE TROPICS...A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N40W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS FURTHER W ALONG 30N51W 27N57W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N65W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

FORMOSA




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