[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301803
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON AUG 30 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE AT 30/1500 UTC IS NEAR 40.9N
50.7W...MOVING NORTHEASTWARD 14 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLC. PLEASE READ THE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21
KNHC AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 40N TO 42N
BETWEEN 52W AND 55W.

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL AT 30/1800 UTC IS NEAR 19.0N
64.2W...OR ABOUT 65 NM TO THE NE OF ST. THOMAS...MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 13 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 960 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 105 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 130 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 14N TO 23N BETWEEN 60W AND 68W...AFFECTING THE ISLANDS AND
WATERS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. PLEASE READ THE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22
KNHC AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W MOVING WESTWARD 15-20 KT. A 1008 MB
LOW PRESSURE IS EMBEDDED IN THE WAVE NEAR 14N47W. SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 45W AND 50W. THE
CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PLEASE READ THE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOAT/ABNT20
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W S OF 18N. BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING IS
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE WAVE NOTED ON SATELLITE DERIVED
WINDS. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS EMBEDDED IN THE WAVE NEAR 15N25W.
SAHARAN AIR SURROUNDING THE WAVE IS KEEPING THE CONVECTION
CONFINED TO THE ITCZ FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 9W-30W.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N20W
WESTWARD ALONG 7N28W TO 10N37W. THEN...IT RESUMES NEAR 10N48W TO
14N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 9W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
500 MB HEIGHTS ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE COVERING MOST OF THE EASTERN CONUS EXTENDING RIDGE AXIS
DOWN TO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES AN AREA OF ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALOFT EMBEDDED IN
THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 27N96W. THIS
FEATURE IS PUSHING A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE AREA
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF...SUPPORTING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED TSTMS N OF 27N BETWEEN 85W-92W. DIFFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE FAR WESTERN ATLC IS GENERATED BY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE SE GULF
INCLUDING THE FLORIDA STRAITS E OF 86W S OF 25N. GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER IS NOTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF...WITH E-SE WINDS TO
15 KT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE NE CARIBBEAN IS THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WITH MULTIPLE BANDS
OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED TO HURCN EARL
ENTERING THE NE CARIBBEAN E OF 67W N OF 14N...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES AND PUERTO RICO. THIS AREA OF
CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY MOVE NW OUT THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS...WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE MORE AND MORE
DURING THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN WIND AND SEAS. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN BASIN WITH AXIS
ALONG 18N76W 14N79W 10N80W. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS W OF 77W S OF 20N. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS OVER THE FAR SW
BASIN S OF 12N W OF 78W...DUR TO CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE ITCZ
EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO COSTA RICA. DRY
AIR ALOFT IS SEEN ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FLOW OVER
THE FAR WESTERN ATLC BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS AND AN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE
WESTERN NORTH ATLC. THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE FAR WESTERN ATLC W OF 72W FROM 23N
TO 27N INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. FARTHER
SE...HURRICANE EARL IS AFFECTING THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN S OF 23N BETWEEN 60W
AND 67W. A SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 32N48W
TO 26N58W...CONTINUING AS A REMNANT CLOUD/SHEAR LINE TO 23N70W.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 25 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH N OF 27N. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ATLC...A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 30N40W PROVIDING MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS N OF 20N E OF 48W ALONG WITH DRY STABLE
AIR ALOFT OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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