[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291758
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN AUG 29 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE DANIELLE IS CENTERED NEAR 35.5N 58.4W AT 29/1500 UTC
WHICH IS ABOUT 500 NM ENE OF BERMUDA...OR ABOUT 680 NM S OF CAPE
RACE NEWFOUNDLAND...MOVING NE AT 23 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 75
KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
DANIELLE IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS IT PICKED UP SPEED IN FORWARD
MOTION. MOST DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW TO THE N AND E DUE TO SW
SHEAR. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
35N-42N BETWEEN 51W-60W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 26N-33N
BETWEEN 52W-56W.

HURRICANE EARL IS CENTERED NEAR 17.4N 58.9W AT 29/1800 UTC WHICH
IS ABOUT 165 NM E OF ANTIGUA...OR ABOUT 245 NM E OF ST.
MARTIN...MOVING WNW AT 15 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 978 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO
80 KT. WATCHES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR EARL. SEE
LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. EARL IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND COULD REACH MAJOR
HURRICANE STATUS BY TUESDAY. DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED NEAR
THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM WHERE NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION NOW
EXTENDS FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 57W-61W...WITH NUMEROUS MODERATE
CONVECTION ELSEWHERE FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN 55W-62W. THE WRN EDGE
OF THE CONVECTION IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS.

STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W S OF 21N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE
WAVE AXIS CONCENTRATED NEAR A 1006 MB LOW ALONG THE AXIS NEAR
14N CONFIRMED BY AN ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS. THE PASS ALSO
INDICATED WIND OF 20-25 KT AROUND THE NRN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH
LIGHTER WINDS TO THE S INDICATING THAT THE CENTER IS NOT
WELL-DEFINED AT THIS TIME. MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS TO THE
WRN SIDE OF THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 37W-42W. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM AT
ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 8N22W 7N30W 9N40W 10N47W
13N52W 10N65W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 5N-12N BETWEEN 13W-24W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 5N-8N
BETWEEN 27W-31W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO
FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 45W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MAINLY SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING FROM
A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE NE CONUS. HOWEVER...A SURFACE
TROUGH LINES THE NW GULF COASTLINE FROM LOUISIANA TO SRN TEXAS
SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
MISSOURI TO THE NRN GULF S OF MISSISSIPPI. THE COMBINATION OF
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AROUND THE ERN
SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N BETWEEN 85W-93W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 95W-98W. A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF. ELSEWHERE ALOFT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN CENTERED OVER NRN MEXICO NEAR 26N99W WITH
AXIS EXTENDING EWD AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA.
EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE NRN GULF AS
THE SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH MOVES SLIGHTLY EWD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH ACCOMPANIED BY AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE IS
IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE WRN CARIBBEAN EXTENDING W OF JAMAICA
NEAR 18N80W AND DOWN THE NICARAGUA COAST ALONG 15N83W 10N83W.
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER WRN HONDURAS WITH TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING
TO ERN CUBA IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 75W-83W...FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN
80W-82W...AND FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 76W-78W. UPPER RIDGING ALONG
WITH MODERATE DRY AIR ALOFT IS TO EITHER SIDE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH KEEPING BOTH THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND MAJORITY OF THE ERN
CARIBBEAN UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH HURRICANE EARL HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO IMPACT THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. EXPECT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH AND ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT MOVES
WWD. ALSO EXPECT EARL TO CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NE CARIBBEAN
DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND DOWN THE ERN COAST OF
FLORIDA AND ACROSS SOME INLAND PORTIONS W OF 78W MOST LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG MOISTURE BOUNDARY BETWEEN DRY AIR
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING S OVER THE NW ATLC AND
UPPER MOISTURE AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE UPPER RIDGE IS
SUPPORTING SURFACE RIDGING WHICH COVERS MUCH OF THE SW ATLC
MAINTAINING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS BESIDES THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
JUST DESCRIBED. TO THE E...HURRICANE DANIELLE HAS MOVED N OUT OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA. HURRICANE EARL IS E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
ALREADY BEGINNING TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS ON BOTH SYSTEMS. SURFACE
RIDGING AROUND A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 30N40W DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE ERN ATLC PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER.
ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED N OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 24N59W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS TO THE E ALONG
30N39W TO 16N52W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE ERN ATLC
CENTERED NEAR 24N23W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON







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