[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290602
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN AUG 29 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0415 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE DANIELLE IS CENTERED NEAR 31.5N 58.8W AT 29/0300 UTC
WHICH IS ABOUT 310 NM E OF BERMUDA OR ABOUT 950 NM SSW OF CAPE
RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MOVING N-NE AT 17 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 90
KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A SLOW
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS DANIELLE MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND
UNDER INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 30N-35N BETWEEN 56W-60W.

TROPICAL STORM EARL IS CENTERED NEAR 16.7N 56.2W AT 29/0600 UTC
WHICH IS ABOUT 405 NM E-SE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MOVING W AT 17 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. SEE
LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. EARL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
GENERALLY W-NW FOR NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NW AND N. THE CURRENT NE SHEAR SHOULD GRADUALLY
DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 24 HR ALLOWING EARL TO STRENGTHEN AND
COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY 72 HR. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 54W-58W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA 13N-19N BETWEEN 52W-59W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W S OF 10N WITH A 1008 MB SURFACE
LOW CENTERED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 13N MOVING W-NW 15-20 KT.
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE SURROUNDING THE WAVE/LOW. SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS COVERING THE AREA FROM
12N-16N BETWEEN 33W-37W. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THIS LOW HAS
BECOME BETTER DEFINED TONIGHT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N16W TO 15N25W THEN RESUMES NEAR
9N35W 10N41W TO 12N47W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 7N24W TO 6N28W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 15W-19W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 37W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W GULF NEAR 25N97W EXTENDING
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS E-NE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
INTO THE FAR W ATLC. N OF THIS RIDGE AXIS IS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI ACROSS
NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA INTO THE FAR NW GULF NEAR 27N91W
SUPPORTING A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED ALONG THE LOUISIANA
COAST JUST S OF LAKE CHARLES AT 0300 UTC. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE LOW SW TO NEAR 27N96W AS INDICATED BY A NARROW
CLOUD LINE. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE E
GULF N OF 25N E OF 91W TO OVER THE SE CONUS INCLUDING THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. DUE TO THE EASTERLY UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE S
GULF AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THE LATE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS INDUCED A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDED FROM 22N89W
TO NW GUATEMALA BUT IS NOW BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS THE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE S OF 20N E OF 95W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY/SCENARIO OVER W
CUBA IS MOVING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SE GULF AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL S OF 25N E OF 87W THROUGH THE
FLORIDA STRAITS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N87W
AND COUPLED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
COVERING THE NW CARIBBEAN ARE INCREASING THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 17N W OF 81W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W INDUCING
AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM PANAMA TO SW HAITI. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN AS INDICATED ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND COUPLED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
ARE PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DENSE CLOUD COVER WITH CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF 70W. THE E
CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR.
HOWEVER...WITH THE QUICKLY APPROACHING TROPICAL STORM EARL
RIDING THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CENTRAL ATLC UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE...CONDITIONS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AND NE CARIBBEAN ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVE OVER
THE ISLANDS BY MORNING WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS MOVING IN
LATER SUNDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE NW ATLC DIPPING S TO 29N W OF
63W WITH THE UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO
EXTENDING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE SW ATLC TO
26N70W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING S
OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC AND E CARIBBEAN COVERING THE AREA N OF
10N BETWEEN 45W-65W INDUCING AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
NEAR 26N66W SW TO OVER E CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. A WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE DIPS S OVER THE W ATLC TO 27N W OF 70W TO OVER THE FAR NW
GULF OF MEXICO. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL AT THE BASE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH N OF 27N W OF 69W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 27N-31N W OF 69W TO INLAND
OVER THE SE CONUS. FARTHER EAST...HURRICANE DANIELLE IS MOVING
N-NE AND QUICKLY BECOMING ENTANGLED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC. DANIELLE IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE PROVIDING LONG PERIOD SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF TO
BERMUDA AND THE EASTERN U.S. COASTLINE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND. TO THE E OF DANIELLE IS A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY
A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 32N46W DOMINATING THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE E ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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