[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 281804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT AUG 28 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE DANIELLE IS A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. DANIELLE IS THE FIRST HURRICANE REACHING
CATEGORY FOUR SO FAR THIS YEAR. THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE
AS OF 28/1800 UTC IS NEAR 29.6N 60.3W...OR ABOUT 325 MILES ESE
OF BERMUDA...MOVING NNE 8 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 950 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 95 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES
AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE SURROUNDING THE HURRICANE. THE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NNE AND BEGIN TO MOVE OVER COOLER
WATERS TODAY...IN RESPONSE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LONG WAVE
MOVING OFF THE US EASTERN SEABOARD. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 25N TO 33N BETWEEN 57W AND 63W. PLEASE READ
THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL AS OF 28/1800 UTC IS NEAR
16.1N 53.2W...OR ABOUT 660 MILES ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...MOVING WESTWARD 16 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 50 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES
AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE SURROUNDING THE STORM. THIS SYSTEM
IS MOVING WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOWEVER...AS EARL APPROACHES THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE RIDGE...IT SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN MORE TO THE WNW IN A DAY
OR SO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N TO
17N BETWEEN 50W AND 57W. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC LOCATED
ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
ALONG 28W S OF 18N. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES
AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE SURROUNDING THE WAVE. THE WAVE
SHOWS A SHARP SURFACE LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING AROUND 1008 MB LOW
EMBEDDED IN THE SYSTEM NEAR 13N28W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 9N TO 16N BETWEEN 29W AND 38W. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS

...TROPICAL WAVES...

NO OTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE 28/1200 UTC SURFACE MAP.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO
5N19W...RESUMING SOUTH OF THE ATLC SPECIAL FEATURE NEAR 3N29W TO
9N38W. THEN...IT RE-APPEARS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
BASIN NEAR 12N70W TO A 1009 MB LOW OVER THE COAST OF PANAMA NEAR
10N82W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE AXIS FROM 13W TO 19W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
BASIN S OF 18N BETWEEN 70W AND 84W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERS A GREAT PART OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. BROAD STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER MOST
OF THIS REGION NOTED OF WATER VAPOR...WHICH ALSO SHOWS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW/SHORTWAVE STARTING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN
LEADING EDGE OF THIS DRY AIRMASS NEAR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. THIS
FEATURE IS SUPPORTING A 1008 MB LOW 30 NM SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL
LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 29N91W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM
FROM THE FAR EASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR 30N89W CROSSING THE
SURFACE LOW CENTER AND CONTINUING SW TO 24N95W...BECOMING A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH TO COATZACOALCOS MEXICO NEAR
18N94W. MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION SURROUNDS THE
LOW CENTER AND EXTENDS EAST TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NORTH OF
28N BETWEEN 85W AND 92W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 190 NM EAST OF THE FRONT. WEAK SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 80 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WILL SHIFT TO THE NW GULF AND THE TEXAS COAST OVER THE NEXT 24
TO 48 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1009 MB LOW IS OVER THE FAR SW BASIN NEAR 10N82W...EMBEDDED IN
THE ITCZ EXTENDING FROM THE PANAMA AND COSTA RICA BORDER TO THE
NE COAST OF VENEZUELA ALONG 10N82W 12N77W 11N70W. THIS SYSTEM IS
GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG ISOLATED CONVECTION
ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BASIN S OF 18N BETWEEN
70W AND 84W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC TURNING SURROUNDING THE SURFACE LOW...FURTHER ENHANCING
THE ACTIVITY IN THIS REGION. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS
DOMINATED BY RELATIVELY DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT KEEPING CONVECTION
DOWN ACROSS THE REGION. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THE SURFACE LOW
WILL SHIFT NW AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS TRANSFERRING THE
CONVECTION TO THE NW BASIN THOUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE SW BASIN OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS DUE TO SURFACE CONVERGENCE FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE
ITCZ.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200
NM OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD S OF 32N AFFECTING THE FAR WESTERN
ATLC...INCLUDING THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS.
THE ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LONG WAVE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLC N OF 32N AND BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT EMBEDDED
IN AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
FARTHER EAST...HURRICANE DANIELLE IS LOCATED ABOUT 320 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE
DETAILS. A WEAK COLD FRONT SWINGS THE NRN DISCUSSION AREA ALONG
32N26W 29N29W 27N32W ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 30NM EAST OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN
OCCLUDED UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION
ACROSS THE N CENTRAL ATLC. TROPICAL STORM EARL IS SW OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC LOCATED ABOUT 800
MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ASIDE DANIELLE AND
THE COLD FRONT...SURFACE RIDGING AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT
DOMINATE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC N OF 19N
E OF 53W SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED N OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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