[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 281200
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT AUG 28 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE AT 28/1200 UTC IS NEAR
29.1N 60.9W...OR ABOUT 320 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
BERMUDA...MOVING NORTH AT 8 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 950 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 95 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND THE
LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 26N TO 30N
BETWEEN 56W AND 63W.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL AT 28/1200 UTC IS NEAR
15.8N 51.2W...OR ABOUT 800 NM TO THE EAST OF THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS...MOVING WESTWARD 18 KT. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N TO
17N BETWEEN 49W AND 54W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N25W TO A 1009 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 13N27W...BEYOND 6N27W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 6N TO 15N BETWEEN 26W AND 35W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
A TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY FORM DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

NO OTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE 28/0600 UTC SURFACE MAP.

...THE ITCZ...

8N13W 9N18W...8N28W 13N38W...11N47W 9N54W TO 10N62W IN
NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 5N
TO 9N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 17W WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AFRICA COAST
FROM 4N TO 8N...AND FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 44W AND 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST RIDGE SPANS THE AREA.
A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO
THE NORTHERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.  INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
LINE FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA COAST TO THE WEST CENTRAL
GULF WATERS TO THE NORTHERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. MIDDLE LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A CYCLONIC CENTER AND A TROUGH IS ON TOP OF
THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM 22N TO 25N.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO AN
18N81W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER BEYOND CENTRAL NICARAGUA.
ELONGATED EAST-TO-WEST MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA...UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ON TOP OF
THIS AREA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N TO 14N
BETWEEN 71W AND 73W...AND FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 78W AND 83W.
OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE CENTRAL WATERS FROM
15N TO 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 82W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS COVER
THE AREA FROM JAMAICA TO EASTERN CUBA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE IN THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...IN AN AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW...BEING PUSHED WESTWARD BY THE LARGER-SCALE
FLOW THAT IS TO THE WEST OF TROPICAL STORM EARL. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE COVERING THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
COUNTRIES OF CENTRAL AMERICA SIX HOURS NOW ARE IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN WATERS OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS IN BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND
HURRICANE DANIELLE...SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE. PART
OF THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE 25N69W CYCLONIC
CENTER THAT IS BETWEEN HURRICANE DANIELLE AND THE SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS SOUTH AMERICA AND THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 39W AND 66W. THIS
AREA INCLUDES PART OF SOUTH AMERICA. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 32N31W TO 26N40W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N29W TO
25N37W. NO READILY DISCERNIBLE DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
ACCOMPANIES THE TROUGH/FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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