[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 271806
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI AUG 27 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

MAJOR HURRICANE DANIELLE IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. DANIELLE IS THE FIRST CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE OF THE YEAR 2010. THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE AT
27/1500 UTC IS NEAR 26.9N 59.8W...OR ABOUT 545 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF BERMUDA...MOVING NORTHWESTWARD 10 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 946 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE SURROUNDING THE
HURRICANE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 24N
TO 30N BETWEEN 57W AND 63W. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL AT 27/1500 UTC IS NEAR 15.7N
43.6W...OR ABOUT 1430 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES
AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE SURROUNDING THE STORM. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N TO 19N BETWEEN 42W AND
47W. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 23W S OF 18N. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE SURROUNDING THE
WAVE. THE WAVE SHOWS A SHARP SURFACE LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING
AROUND 1011 MB LOW EMBEDDED IN THE SYSTEM NEAR 13N23W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N TOO 13N BETWEEN 23W AND
31W. THERE OS A HIGH CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPING INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 7N46W 8N55W 12N62W...RESUMING OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N70W TO PANAMA NEAR 9N82W. WEAK
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS WITHIN 40 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS
FROM 46W TO 62W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS W OF 70W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA. THIS UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE IS GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE
OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EAST CONUS NOTED OF WATER VAPOR.
THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS AIRMASS IS CLASHING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT HUGS THE COAST OF THE ESE STATES...EXCLUDING
FLORIDA...SUPPORTING A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY
ANALYZED FROM THE EASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA TO VERACRUZ MEXICO
ALONG 29N91W CONTINUING AS A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 24N95W TO
18N96W. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS THIS FRONT AS WARM DUE TO A
SLIGHT NW SHIFT OVER THE LAST 6 HRS. MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 290 NM EAST OF THE FRONT...AFFECTING THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND COASTAL WATERS OF FAR EAST LOUISIANA...
MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE W OF 84W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180
NM WEST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS OF
THE MEXICO FROM MATAMOROS TO COATZACOALCOS. THE OVERALL
CONVECTION IS FURTHER ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ALONG
THE UPPER TROUGH. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL LINGER OVER THE MENTIONED REGIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN S OF 15N W OF 70W. THE
ACTIVITY IS MOSTLY RELATED TO SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR A PORTION
OF THE ITCZ EXTENDING FROM PANAMA TO NE VENEZUELA ALONG 9N82W
12N78W 13N70W. AN E TO W ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER
JAMAICA. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT SURROUNDS THIS LOW
SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED
FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 75W AND 81W. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT KEEPING
CONVECTION DOWN ACROSS THE REGION. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE MORE
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE SW BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
TRANSFERRING TO THE NW BASIN THOUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200
NM OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD N OF 29N...ASSOCIATED TO THE NEARLY
STATIONARY BOUNDARY N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. FARTHER
EAST...MAJOR HURCN DANIELLE IS LOCATED ABOUT 545 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF BERMUDA. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. A WEAK
COLD FRONT SWINGS THE NRN DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N29W 29N33W
27N38W ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30NM
EAST OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN OCCLUDED UPPER
LEVEL LOW/TROUGH N OF THE AREA ACROSS THE N CENTRAL ATLC. T.S.
EARL IS SW OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC
LOCATED ABOUT 1430 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE FAR ERN ATLC N OF 16N E OF 29W
SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED N OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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