[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT42 KNHC 270839
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010
500 AM AST FRI AUG 27 2010

EARL HAS GENERALLY CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION THAT REFORMED AROUND 00 UTC HAS
PERSISTED IN BROAD CURVED BANDS MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE ESTIMATED
LOW-LEVEL CENTER POSITION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT
AND 35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY...AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 40 KT.  THE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC
ENVIRONMENTS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION...AND INDEED ALL
OF THE INTENSITY MODELS SHOW EARL STRENGTHENING THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST
WHICH BRINGS EARL TO HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 2 DAYS AND SHOWS
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER.

EARL CONTINUES TO MOVE ON A CONSISTENT WESTWARD PATH AND THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/15. A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE CYCLONE REMAINS
STEERED BY A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ALONG 25N. EARL IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH A BREAK IN THE RIDGE...WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED
BY HURRICANE DANIELLE...IN ABOUT 3 DAYS AND THAT SHOULD INDUCE A
TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD AND THE NHC OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY
AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      27/0900Z 15.9N  41.6W    40 KT
 12HR VT     27/1800Z 16.2N  44.2W    45 KT
 24HR VT     28/0600Z 16.4N  47.4W    50 KT
 36HR VT     28/1800Z 16.6N  50.7W    55 KT
 48HR VT     29/0600Z 17.2N  53.9W    65 KT
 72HR VT     30/0600Z 19.0N  59.0W    75 KT
 96HR VT     31/0600Z 21.5N  62.5W    85 KT
120HR VT     01/0600Z 24.5N  65.0W   100 KT

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


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