[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU AUG 26 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE AT 26/0300 UTC IS NEAR
22.4N 54.1W...OR ABOUT 550 NM TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. IT IS MOVING
NORTHWESTWARD 15 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 975 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 85 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 105 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND
THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 22N
TO 26N BETWEEN 51W AND 56W.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL AT 26/0300 UTC IS NEAR
14.7N 33.6W...OR ABOUT 520 NM TO THE WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD 14 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 33W AND 36W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15W/16W TO THE SOUTH OF 20N. STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN A FEW CLUSTERS FROM 8N TO
13N BETWEEN 16W AND 22W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23N79W BY CUBA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA
NEAR 16N81W...SOUTHWARD BEYOND PANAMA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE FROM 20N TO THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 79W AND 83W STILL MAY BE MORE
RELATED TO THE NEARBY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN
81W AND 83W.

...THE ITCZ...

11N18W 10N22W 12N26W 9N34W 7N43W 12N54W 11N63W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 6N TO 11N
BETWEEN 31W AND 60W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAINS AND COASTAL WATERS OF VENEZUELA FROM 9N TO 11N
BETWEEN 64W AND 68W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA OF THE OFFSHORE
WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 93W...CONTINUING ACROSS
ALL OF MEXICO. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MORE THAN ONE INDIVIDUAL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER MAY BE MIXED INTO THE COMPARATIVELY
LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN WESTERN MEXICO FROM 23N TO 28N. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
COVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER...INTO MEXICO FROM 20N TO 28N. A STATIONARY
FRONT LINGERS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO...FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE
LOWER TEXAS COAST. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EAST CENTRAL
GULF WATERS TO A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
26N93W...TO 24N96W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF WATERS FROM 24N TO
27N BETWEEN SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA AND 85W. A SEPARATE SURFACE
TROUGH GOES FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS INTO NORTHWESTERN
GUATEMALA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 20N IN
THE WATERS BETWEEN 92W AND 94W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE WESTERN GULF
OF TEHAUNTEPEC OF MEXICO.

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 60W...
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N71W...ACROSS THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA. IT APPEARS THAT THE ORIGINAL TROUGH
FROM 24 HOURS AGO HAS WEAKENED...AND THAT THE TROUGH THAT WAS
AFFECTING FLORIDA 24 HOURS AGO NOW HAS MOVED EASTWARD...INTO
PLACE AFTER THE ORIGINAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH WEAKENED.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS FROM 20N80W INTO WESTERN HONDURAS.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN NORTHERN COASTAL HONDURAS INTO
EASTERN GUATEMALA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER CENTRAL
AMERICA FROM PANAMA NEAR 8N82W NORTHWESTWARD INTO WESTERN
NICARAGUA...ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF AN AREA OF EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN CYCLONIC FLOW THAT GOES FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 87W AND 88W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N TO THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA IN AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ALSO IS IN
NORTHERN COASTAL COLOMBIA. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN 60W AND 64W IN THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HURRICANE DANIELLE AND TROPICAL STORM EARL COVER MUCH OF THE
AREA TO THE SOUTH OF 30N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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