[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251701
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED AUG 25 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE DANIELLE AT 25/1500 UTC IS NEAR 19.6N 52.3W...OR
ABOUT 710 MI...1145 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. PLEASE READ
THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 51W-54W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 18N-25N BETWEEN 48W-55W.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN IS NEAR 14N28W...OR ABOUT 430 MI...690
KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING WEST 15 KT.
THE SYSTEM WAS UPGRADED AT 1500 UTC. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 29W-34W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER WEST AFRICA ALONG 15W S OF 20N
MOVING W AT 20 KT. CYCLONIC TURNING IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS.
CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DIMINISHED. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
REMAINS FROM 8N-17N BETWEEN 13W-20W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
FROM 26N68W TO 19N70W TO 12N69W MOVING W AT 18 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN S OF JAMAICA
FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 75W-83W.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 9N32W TO 8N40W 13N48W. THE ITCZ
RESUMES W OF HURCN DANIELLE AT 14N55W AND CONTINUES W TO 13N62W.
BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES AND
SPECIAL FEATURES...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
10N-13N BETWEEN 48W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1011 MB LOW IS INLAND OVER SW GEORGIA NEAR 31N84W. A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS W FROM THE LOW CENTER TO NEAR CORPUS CHRISTIE
TEXAS ALONG 29N90W 28N97W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1009 MB LOW HAS FORMED OVER THE W
GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N93W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS SE OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN
87W-92W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF TAMPA
FLORIDA FROM 28N-29N BETWEEN 82W-85W.  RADAR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SE GULF AND S FLORIDA MOVING E. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
TEXAS NEAR 30N100W PRODUCING MAINLY NE UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER
THE GULF. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE GULF S OF
29N. EXPECT...THE FRONT TO BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN WEATHER.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
15-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN. A TROPICAL WAVE IS
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF PUERTO RICO. SIMILAR
SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS E OF
70W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CONTINUED SHOWERS AND
CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND CENTRAL
AMERICA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND W ATLANTIC
FROM 25N-32N BETWEEN 75W-80W. A 1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC NEAR 30N58W. ANOTHER 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
E ATLANTIC NEAR 29N27W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF DANIELLE NEAR 27N53W. OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 26N48W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE
CENTER IS ENHANCING THE SHOWERS FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 50W-52W.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N37W. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL SYSTEMS TO MOVE W WITH
CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA






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