[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 251111
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED AUG 25 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE AT 25/0900 UTC IS NEAR 18.8N
51.0W...OR ABOUT 840 NM TO THE EAST OF PUERTO RICO. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. PLEASE
READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N TO 22N BETWEEN 49W AND 52W.

A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 14N28W...MOVING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 28W AND 31W.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER MAY DEVELOP
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25N72W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...PASSING
ON TOP OF EASTERN CUBA AND THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...INTO
THE CARIBBEAN SEA EVENTUALLY TO THE COLOMBIA COAST ALONG 75W.
THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF AT LEAST ONE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. PRECIPITATION IS NEAR THIS WAVE BUT POSSIBLY NOT RELATED
TO THE WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM 9N29W TO 7N35W 10N43W...AND FROM 10N52W ALONG 10N INTO AND
BEYOND NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA THROUGH 10N61W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 12N BETWEEN 25W
AND 60W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT COVER THE AREA FROM 9N
TO 17N BETWEEN 14W AND 18W MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT
TROPICAL WAVE...THAT HAS NOT BEEN INCLUDED YET IN THE MAP
ANALYSIS.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LEVEL TROUGH CUTS INTO THE AREA PASSING THROUGH NORTHERN
FLORIDA...INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WATERS...AND THEN IT
CONTINUES ACROSS 25N...TOWARD THE MIDDLE TO LOWER TEXAS GULF
COAST. A SLOWLY-MOVING COLD FRONT HUGS THE U.S.A. GULF OF MEXICO
COAST. A SURFACE TROUGH IS WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM TO THE SOUTH
OF THE FRONT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE LINE FROM 30N86W 28N96W 19N96W.

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 67W...
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N67W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS
NEAR 23N75W...ACROSS EASTERN CUBA TO THE WATERS THAT ARE IN
BETWEEN JAMAICA...CUBA...AND HAITI...AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD TO
17N82W...EVENTUALLY INTO SOUTHERN HONDURAS. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N67W 27N70W 23N74W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 16N TO THE
WEST OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO BELIZE. SOME SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN FROM EL SALVADOR TO GUATEMALA AND
HONDURAS AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...AS MUCH OF THE EARLIER
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT WAS IN THOSE AREAS HAS WEAKENED.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 79W
AND 82W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING IN AN AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW THAT IS IN BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH...AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW ON TOP OF COLOMBIA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS COVER COLOMBIA AND NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA TO THE
NORTH OF 7NBETWEEN 70W AND 74W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 66W AND 72W...IN RESIDUAL UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HURRICANE DANIELLE AND ITS RELATED WEATHER COVER THE AREA FROM
THE ITCZ TO 27N BETWEEN 40W AND 56W. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THAT CUTS ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SOUTH
CAROLINA AND EVENTUALLY BEYOND NORTHERN FLORIDA AND INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE
WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH TO 22N77W AT THE CUBA
COAST. SHOWERS ARE TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N66W 25N70W...INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.  AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N27W TO 24N39W 29N47W TO A 27N53W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO A 22N61W CYCLONIC CENTER...
TO 21N68W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AWAY FROM HURRICANE DANIELLE
AND A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...TO THE NORTH
OF 20N BETWEEN 40W AND 70W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH
32N23W TO A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N36W...
TO A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N59W...TOWARD
THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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