[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 241716
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE AUG 24 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE AT 24/1500 UTC IS NEAR 16.6N
46.5W...OR ABOUT 985 MI...1585 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
...MOVING WEST 17 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
985 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 70 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 85 KT. DANIELLE HAS WEAKENED DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS BUT
RE-STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PLEASE
READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 44W-48W.

A 1008 MB LOW IS S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 14N23W MOVING
WNW AT 20 KT. THIS LOW IS STEADILY DEEPENING AND IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-16N
BETWEEN 22W-25W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
FROM 26N68W TO 19N70W TO 12N69W MOVING W AT 18 KT. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
HISPANIOLA FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 69W-73W.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 11N24W TO 10N30W 14N40W. THE ITCZ
RESUMES W OF HURCN DANIELLE AT 12N49W AND CONTINUES W TO 11N60W.
BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES AND
HURCN DANIELLE...CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 5N12N BETWEEN 24W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1009 MB LOW IS INLAND OVER SW GEORGIA NEAR 31N85W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE CENTRAL GULF ALONG
28N86W 25N92W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 180 NM SW OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE NW GULF FROM 26N-29N
BETWEEN 93W-95W MOVING W. RADAR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE SE GULF AND S FLORIDA MOVING E. ELSEWHERE...A
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO ALONG
22N92W 15N92W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH
AXIS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS NEAR 30N99W PRODUCING MAINLY NE UPPER LEVEL WINDS
OVER THE GULF. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE GULF
S OF 29N. EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
15-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN. A TROPICAL WAVE IS
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 7N-15N
BETWEEN 76W-82W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO S OF THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 78W-82W. ELSEWHERE...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM
9N-13N BETWEEN 60W-64W...AND FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 64W-69W DUE TO
AN ACTIVE ITCZ. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CONTINUED
SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND W ATLANTIC
FROM 25N-32N BETWEEN 75W-80W. A 1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC NEAR 31N57W. ANOTHER 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
E ATLANTIC NEAR 29N34W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 26N48W.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS ENHANCING THE SHOWERS
FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 45W-47W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
THE TROPICAL SYSTEMS TO MOVE W WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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