[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 230549
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON AUG 23 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AS OF 0300 UTC...TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE IS CENTERED NEAR 14.2N
35.9W...OR ABOUT 770 NM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MOVING NW AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
CURRENTLY THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF ENHANCED
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS MAINLY W OF THE CENTER FROM 8N-16N
BETWEEN 34W-41W. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ENE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 25N57W 19N59W
13N56W MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS FOLLOWING AN AREA OF
ENHANCED MOISTURE BETWEEN 57W-62W INDICATED BY TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WEAK BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING IS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE DERIVED
WINDS. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF AFRICAN
DUST E OF THE AXIS. SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS ALONG 28N69W TO 20N74W
MOVING NW NEAR 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF
ENHANCED MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
THIS WAVE IS UNDERNEATH AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
SUPPORTING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 130 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE AXIS.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM GUINEA NEAR 10N14W...EXTENDING
WESTWARD ALONG 7N21W TO 11N30W. THEN RESUMES SE OF TROPICAL
STORM DANIELLE NEAR 8N40W...CONTINUING ALONG 9N46W TO 10N55W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-12N BETWEEN
THE WEST AFRICAN COAST AND 29W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 40W AND 47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MOST OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS PRODUCING
STRONG SUBSIDENCE OF AIR MOVING INTO THE ESE STATES...CREATING A
SHARP BOUNDARY BETWEEN MOIST AND DRY AIR ALONG THE SE US
COASTLINE. THIS SCENARIO IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COVERING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF E OF
90W...WITH FOCUS ALONG THE NE AND N CENTRAL GULF COAST OF
MEXICO...WITHIN 50 NM OFFSHORE FROM MARSH ISLAND LOUISIANA TO
SARASOTA FLORIDA. THE ACTIVITY IS INFLUENCED BY A SURFACE LOW
LOCATED A FEW NM WEST OF NORTH KEY FLORIDA NEAR 29N83W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW CENTER TO NEAR 25N85W. AS
CONDITIONS ARE EVOLVING QUITE RAPIDLY...REEFER TO YOUR LOCAL
COASTAL NWS FOR MORE DETAILS AND WARNINGS. THE WRN HALF OF THE
BASIN IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1017 MB HIGH OFF
THE COAST OF TEXAS NEAR 27N94W SUPPORTED BY THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MENTIONED ABOVE PROVIDING OVERALL FAIR WEATHER UNDER LIGHT
ANTICYCLONIC WINDS W OF 90W. EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 24
HRS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 78W...PROVIDED BY THE COMBINATION OF AN
ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM N OF HONDURAS TO THE
SW CARIBBEAN...AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FLOW BETWEEN UPPER
RIDING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CENTER OVER THE N BAHAMAS. FURTHERMORE...SURFACE CONVERGENCE
NEAR A PORTION OF THE ITCZ EXTENDING ALONG 10N FROM COSTA RICA
TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN AND INLAND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE ERN
CARIBBEAN ALONG 66W. THE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF
ENHANCED MOISTURE BETWEEN 63W-70W. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE
TROUGH IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
150 NM OF THE AXIS. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER MOST OF
THE WESTERN ATLC W OF 70W...INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 25N75W. THIS UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE IS ALSO PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT NEAR A TROPICAL
WAVE EXTENDING FROM 28N69W TO 19N74W. ASIDE ANOTHER TROPICAL
WAVE ENE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND T.S. DANIELLE...SURFACE
RIDGING DOMINATES THE ATLC N OF 25N ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 31N32W...MAINTAINING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS. AN AREA OF AFRICAN DUST IS FURTHER PROVIDING STABLE
CONDITIONS BETWEEN 44W-55W. ALOFT...WEAK UPPER RIDGING IS
BETWEEN 50W-70W. A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR 27N44W
WITH UPPER RIDGING COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC CENTERED
NEAR 22N36W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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