[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211736
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT AUG 21 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1009 MB ELONGATED LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL EASTERN
ATLC NEAR 11N31W IS EMBEDDED IN A BROAD MONSOONAL TROUGH S OF
15N BETWEEN 20W-38W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
COVERS A BROAD AREA FROM 7N-16N BETWEEN 20W-40W. WHILE
CONVECTION REMAINS GENERALLY UNORGANIZED...THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WESTWARD.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 24N46W TO 18N48W TO 11N45W MOVING W
AT 12-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N
BETWEEN 44W-48W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE WAVE AXIS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF
SAHARAN DUST AND DRY AIR E OF THE WAVE AXIS TO WEST AFRICA FROM
12N-25N.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 67W S OF 23N
MOVING W AT 12-15 KT. THIS WAVE ALSO HAS A WEAK AREA OF DUST AND
DRY AIR E OF THE WAVE AXIS TO 48W FROM 15N-30N. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 20N-23N
BETWEEN 64W-67W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTH MEXICO
FROM 23N97W TO 14N94W MOVING W AT 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN
94W-97W.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N33W 12N45W 10N50W 11N60W.
CROSS EQUATORIAL MONSOON FLOW IS E OF 33W TO WEST AFRICA AND
THUS NOT DEPICTED AS AN ITCZ. THE 1009 MB LOW MENTIONED IN THE
SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION IS EMBEDDED IN THIS AREA. NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH CONVECTION. SEE
ABOVE. A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
26N86W. WEAK 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW IS NOTED OVER THE
GULF. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NE GULF ALONG
THE COAST OF N FLORIDA FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 83W-87W. MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS
...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PRODUCING EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE
GULF. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE...AND OVER FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF. EXPECT...LITTLE
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. IN
ADDITION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 78W-84W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF BARBADOS FROM 13N-16N
BETWEEN 58W-61W MOVING W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ALSO EXTEND BETWEEN
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND JAMAICA FROM 16N-20N. 15-20 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWERS
AND CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE.
ALSO EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE SW
CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N25W PRODUCING FAIR
WEATHER. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W TO THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 29N40W
28N65W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 26N65W. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM
24N-27N BETWEEN 62W-64W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N40W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR SHOWERS AND CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND
THE BAHAMAS. ALSO EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W WITH
SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

FORMOSA





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