[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON AUG 16 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...REMNANTS OF T.D. FIVE...IS
LOCATED 80 NM SOUTH OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA NEAR 29N87W. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
EMBEDDED IN THE SYSTEM COVERING MOST OF THE NORTHERN GULF N OF
25N W OF 85W ADVECTING INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES...WHERE STRONG
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA MOVING WITH
THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LOW CENTER MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST.
THERE REMAINS A HIGH CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE BEFORE MOVING INLAND OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON
TUESDAY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE EASTERN ATLC...WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS ALONG 26W SOUTH OF 22N MOVING W 10-15 KT. SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE VICINITY OF
THE WAVE AXIS...ALSO CONFIRMED BY SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. A
LARGE SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ALSO BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS
EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS ALSO EAST OF THE AXIS DUE TO A
LARGE AREA OF AFRICAN DUST SUPPRESSING CONVECTION W OF THE AXIS.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N TO 18N
BETWEEN THE COAST OF AFRICA AND 26W. THE ACTIVITY S OF 14N IS
ALSO ASSOCIATED TO THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS WEST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 64W SOUTH OF
ANEGADA ISLAND TO PUERTO LA CRUZ VENEZUELA MOVING W 10-15 KT.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH AN AREA
OF ENHANCED MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
IMPACTING THE MAJORITY OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 10N TO 20N
BETWEEN 60W-68W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE FAR WEST CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 85W SOUTH OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THE
WAVE LIES EMBEDDED WITH AN AREA OF ENHANCED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
COVERING THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN INDICATED BY TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION COVER THE W CARIBBEAN
WEST OF 76 AND ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INCLUDING THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM WEST AFRICA OVER GUINEA-BISSAU
NEAR 12N16W...CONTINUING WESTWARD ALONG 13N25W 9N36W 8N46W
12N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 130 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS EAST OF 43W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE MAIN FEATURE AFFECTING THE GULF IS A 1009 MB LOW LOCATED 80
NM SOUTH OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR
MORE DETAILS. ASIDE THIS FEATURE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG
THE WESTERN COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA S OF 29N WITHIN 100
NM OFFSHORE...ENHANCED BY DIURNAL HEATING INSTABILITY AND SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO ALONG THE
WESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA E OF 92W MOVING WEST INTO
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. A SURFACE TROUGH LINES UP ALONG THE MEXICO
COAST FROM ALTAMIRA TO VERACRUZ...PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN WEST OF 76W...DOMINATED BY THE COMBINATION OF A
TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...AND SURFACE
CONVERGENCE NEAR AN EXTENSION OF THE ITCZ ALONG 10N TO NRN
COLOMBIA. THESE TWO FEATURES ARE FURTHER ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENCE
FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE BASE OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS ACROSS HAITI TO N OF PANAMA. THE
ACTIVITY IN THIS REGION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS WEST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
ALONG 64W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 68W. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN AS THIS WAVE MOVES
WESTWARD.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC ALONG 32N64W
28N72W 67N78W. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT IS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THIS FRONT IS
DIMINISHING AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLC. FARTHER EAST...SURFACE RIDING DOMINATES THE REST OF THE
ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB AZORES HIGH NEAR 40N28W MAINTAINING
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY
ALSO INDICATES A BROAD AREA OF AFRICAN DUST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ATLC FURTHER PROVIDING STABLE CONDITIONS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA



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