[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152359
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN AUG 15 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1012 MB LOW...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE...IS
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH ENTERING THE GULF NEAR PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
EXTENDING W TO NEAR NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA GENERATING HEAVY RAIN
AND SCATTERED/NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N TO INLAND OVER THE
N GULF BETWEEN PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO THE LOUISIANA BORDER AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DOTTING MOST OF THE SE CONUS.
THE LOW IS MOVING S AND SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN SW AND RE-EMERGE
OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO EARLY MONDAY MORNING WHERE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN BRIEF SQUALLS ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W/22W S OF 22N MOVING W 15-20 KT. A
WEAK 1010 MB LOW IS TO THE W OF THE WAVE AXIS CENTERED NEAR
19N23W. WEAK CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ALONG THE N PORTION
OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES
MOISTURE BRIDGING THE N PORTION OF THE WAVE TO OVER THE SURFACE
LOW WITH A DRY SLOT OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH NO
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 20N59W ALONG 14N59W TO 9N55W MOVING W
NEAR 20 KT. WAVE REMAINS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF BROAD AREA OF
SAHARAN AIR WITH A WEAK LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE ALONG THE
WAVE AXIS AS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF THE WAVE AXIS TO
THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AND ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES S OF
18N TO 64W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS FROM 20N81W ALONG
715N79W TO 10N77W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED
WITHIN BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AS
EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE ABUNDANCE OF
MOISTURE IS OBSCURING ANY INDICATION OF CYCLONIC CURVATURE THAT
WOULD BE OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO
MARK THE EXACT LOCATION. ANY CONVECTION/ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER LEVEL FEATURES.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 96W S OF 20N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS
OVER S MEXICO AND IN THE E PACIFIC REGION WITH ANY ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS/CONVECTION NOT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 10N25W 9N33W 11N48W 9N61W THEN
ACROSS N VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA THEN ALONG THE N COAST OF PANAMA
TO OVER COSTA RICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 25W-42W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 16-25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER S MISSISSIPPI/SE LOUISIANA
COVERING THE SE CONUS AND THE GULF WITH THE SPECIAL FEATURES
LOW BENEATH. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INLAND OVER
S FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
INTO THE SE GULF AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS S OF 26N E OF 85W.
SIMILAR ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE E BAY OF
CAMPECHE AND S GULF S OF 22N BETWEEN 88W-93W. A WEAKENING 1018
MB SURFACE HIGH IS IN THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 26N91W. ALTHOUGH
HIGH CLOUDS COVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL GULF N OF 23N BETWEEN
84W-95W...LITTLE OTHER SHOWER ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. A CUTOFF UPPER LOW IS JUST S OF HISPANIOLA
NEAR 17N70W EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH S TO THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. E FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF
17N TO OVER CUBA BETWEEN 75W-85W INCLUDING JAMAICA AND THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS WITH SIMILAR ACTIVITY INLAND OVER HONDURAS AND
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 15N TO OVER
THE GREATER ANTILLES E OF PUERTO RICO AND ACROSS THE SW
CARIBBEAN DUE THE PRESENCE OT THE ITCZ.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND W
CARIBBEAN COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 70W WITH A NARROWING UPPER
TROUGH TO THE E EXTENDING THROUGH 32N62W TO NEAR 26N69W AND
SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N59W SW
ALONG 27N71W THEN NW TO A 1013 MB LOW JUST INLAND OVER E GEORGIA
NEAR 32N81W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF THE FRONT AND W OF A LINE FROM 32N51W TO
E CUBA NEAR 20N74W. AN UPPER HIGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
29N54W ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY DISCUSSED ABOVE. A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC AND ALL OF THE E
ATLC EXTENDING FROM A 1029 MB HIGH OVER THE AZORES THROUGH
32N41W TO 22N66W. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A LARGE
AREA OF SAHARAN DUST THAT COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC FROM 13N-32N
BETWEEN 31W-53W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW




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