[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151049
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN AUG 15 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA ALONG 17W S OF 22N
MOVING W 10-15 KT. A 1009 MB LOW IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR
18N19W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN
13W-21W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 19N53W TO 13N51W TO 8N46W MOVING W 20
KT. WAVE EXHIBITS WEAK LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE ALONG THE
WAVE AXIS AS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED
WINDS. A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR AND SAHARAN DUST IS E OF THE WAVE
AXIS TO WEST AFRICA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 15N-16N
BETWEEN 50W-52W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 73W S OF 17N
MOVING W 10 KT. WEAK LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA
OF DEEP MOISTURE AS EVIDENT ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA FROM
9N-10N BETWEEN 75W-77W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND SOUTHERN MEXICO
ALONG 92W S OF 22N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER GUATEMALA FROM 15N-18N
BETWEEN 89W-91W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
AND SOUTHERN MEXICO FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 94W-97W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 12N16W 9N30W 9N50W 10N61W. BESIDES
THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 22W-38W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 54W-57W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1016 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
27N85W. 10-15 KT SURFACE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE GULF. A LINE
OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM
SE LOUISIANA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM 29N-30N BETWEEN
85W-90W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N BETWEEN 94W-97W. MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER IS OVER THE NW GULF AND TEXAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S MISSISSIPPI NEAR 32N90W WITH
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER S MEXICO NEAR 19N97W. EXPECT...SHOWERS AND
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTH GULF STATES...FLORIDA...THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA.
SEE ABOVE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
FROM 14N-21N BETWEEN 78W-87W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 81W-82W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN
75W-76W. A RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE GRADIENT PATTERN IS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN PRODUCING 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...E
TO NE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA WITH CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.
EXPECT...CONTINUED SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 65W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N59W 27N70W TO
GEORGIA NEAR 31N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
FRONT. A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES AT 38N32W. A
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 22N59W. A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR
AND DUST IS N OF 15N E OF 50W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF NOTE...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR
15N49W PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION JUST W OF THE
CENTER. EXPECT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER
THE W ATLANTIC W OF 60W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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