[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150523
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN AUG 15 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS INLAND OVER W AFRICA ALONG 15W/16W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER WESTERN SAHARA FROM
17N-20N BETWEEN 15W-17W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N50W TO 9N44W MOVING W 15-20 KT.
WAVE EXHIBITS WEAK LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE ALONG THE WAVE
AXIS AS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED
WINDS. A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR AND SAHARAN DUST IS E OF THE WAVE
AXIS TO WEST AFRICA. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION ARE NOTED.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 72W S OF 17N
MOVING W 15-20 KT. WEAK LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA
OF DEEP MOISTURE AS EVIDENT ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA
FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 72W-75W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 90W S OF 20N
MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM HONDURAS TO SOUTHERN MEXICO FROM 13N-19N
BETWEEN 84W-95W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 13N16W 9N20W 8N40W 10N50W 10N61W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N
BETWEEN 20W-30W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N
BETWEEN 35W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1016 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
27N85W. 10-15 KT SURFACE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE GULF.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA
NEAR SEBRING FROM 27N-28N BETWEEN 81W-82W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE N GULF
STATES N OF 29N E OF LOUISIANA. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N BETWEEN 93W-97W.
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE NW GULF AND TEXAS. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S MISSISSIPPI NEAR
32N90W WITH CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED OVER S MEXICO NEAR 19N96W. EXPECT...SHOWERS AND
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTH GULF STATES...FLORIDA...THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 17N-22N
BETWEEN 77W-86W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
INLAND OVER COSTA RICA FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 84W-86W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 75W-78W.
A RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE GRADIENT PATTERN IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
PRODUCING 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...E TO NE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA
WITH CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT...CONTINUED
SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN W
OF 65W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N60W 28N70W TO
SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 32N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM
OF THE FRONT. A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES AT
40N30W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 32N40W 25N55W. A
LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR AND DUST IS N OF 15N E OF 50W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF NOTE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 14N45W PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS W OF
THE CENTER. EXPECT...SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF
60W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA




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