[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130549
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI AUG 13 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 08N31W TO 17N35W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE LOCATION IS BETTER APPARENT IN THE MID LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE...SUCH AS THE 700 MB STREAMLINE ANALYSIS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES WEAK LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS CONFIRMED BY SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS.
DUE TO A LARGE AREA OF DRY SAHARAN AIR AND DUST TO THE EAST OF
THE WAVE AXIS...CONVECTION IS MAINLY CONSTRAINED TO THE ITCZ S
OF 07N.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N60W TO 23N59W MOVING W-NW AT 10-15
KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BROAD LOW TO MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS WITH ELEVATED TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN 54W-61W. ONGOING
CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED IN ORGANIZATION DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS TO THE NW OF THE WAVE AXIS ALONG 29N57W TO 20N67W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
16N-21N BETWEEN 56W-61W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N73W TO 23N70W MOVING W-NW AT 10-15
KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE
HIGHER VALUES OF MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS OVER THE
NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF 16N BETWEEN 64W-79W THAT COINCIDES
WITH THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO NEAR 20N69W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 68W-75W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 08N13W 05N34W 11N69W THEN RESUMING
OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W TO 13N86W OVER NORTHERN
NICARAGUA. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 180 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 13W-30W...AND WITHIN 120 NM
SOUTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 30W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF AND SE CONUS E OF 95W.
EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES AND A MOSTLY DRY AND
SUBSIDENT AIRMASS IS COVERING THIS PORTION OF THE GULF. AT THE
SURFACE...EMBEDDED UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ARE THE
REMNANTS OF T.D. FIVE ANALYZED AS A 1008 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR
30N89W. WITH THE LOSS OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...CONVECTION HAS
DIMINISHED THIS EVENING NEAR THE LOW CENTER AS ONLY A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS REMAIN N OF 28N BETWEEN 86W-92W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE
THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM THE W ATLC ALONG 24N TO THE EASTERN
MEXICO COAST. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE
MEXICO COAST FROM 18N-24N W OF 95W DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ALONG 100W THAT CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS INTERIOR
MEXICO.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING COVERS THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SUPPORTING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NW BAHAMAS
NEAR 25N78W ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO NEAR 19N78W. LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED TSTMS NE OF A LINE FROM SW
HAITI NEAR 18N74W TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W. FARTHER
EAST...A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL HISPANIOLA TO
16N73W IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF
16N BETWEEN 68W-75W. ISOLATED SHOWERS STRETCH FARTHER EAST
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS TO 64W. AN UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN AND THIS COUPLED WITH THE ITCZ AXIS
ALONG 11N/12N IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS...S OF
15N BETWEEN 73W-86W. ELSEWHERE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
IS UNDER GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS...HOWEVER WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE LOCATED NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...INCREASED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 63W THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE
TROPICAL NORTH ATLC NEAR 14N56W TO THE SE CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N66W
IS ENHANCING ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF
14N BETWEEN 59W-63W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES THE W ATLC N OF 21N W OF
62W STEMMING FROM AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N81W.
WHILE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS ADVECTS SOUTHWARD TO
25N...SKIES REMAIN GENERALLY UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS DUE TO
SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 24N/25N BETWEEN 60W TO THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS
SURFACE RIDGE...A PAIR OF WEAKNESSES ARE GENERATING AREAS OF
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION S OF THE RIDGE AXIS. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR 25N78W TO CENTRAL CUBA WITH
NEARLY ALL SIGNIFICANT DAYTIME CONVECTIVE AREAS DIMINISHED AT
THIS TIME. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE STILL ONGOING OVER
INTERIOR CUBA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN 74W-79W.
FARTHER EAST...A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 71W CONTINUES TO ENHANCE
ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 66W-73W. THE BASE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATES NEAR 20N69W AND CONTINUES TO AID IN
POOLING OF LOW TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE PROVIDING LIFT FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS S OF 23N BETWEEN 63W-71W. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N56W TO 20N69W.
THIS UPPER TROUGHING SUPPORTS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED
FROM 25N58W TO 29N55W...ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. FARTHER EAST...BROAD SURFACE RIDGING
DOMINATES THE EASTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER WELL NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AZORES TO NEAR 20N47W. SATELLITE
IMAGERY TRACKING THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER INDICATES A LARGE AREA
COVERING MOST OF THE EASTERN ATLC N OF 15N E OF 35W SUPPORTING
OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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