[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 121740
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU AUG 12 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 20N32W TO 6N27W MOVING W 10-15 KT.
WAVE HAS BEEN RELOCATED FARTHER W THAN PREVIOUS MOTION WOULD
SUGGEST BASED ON ANALYSIS OF LONG TERM SATELLITE IMAGERY.
CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS CONFIRMED BY SATELLITE
DERIVED WINDS. DUE TO A LARGE AREA OF DRY SAHARAN AIR AND DUST E
OF THE WAVE AXIS...CONVECTION IS CONSTRAINED TO THE ITCZ WHERE
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N
BETWEEN 24W-26W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 22N55W TO 14N60W
MOVING NW 10-15 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES LOW/MID-LEVEL
CYCLONIC TURNING AROUND THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE ALSO LIES
EMBEDDED IN A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM EVIDENT IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 58W-59W...AND FROM 19N-22N
BETWEEN 54W-58W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ACROSS THE ERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM
20N68W TO 15N72W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ACROSS THE N
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IN WHICH THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED. MOST OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS S OF HISPANIOLA
WHERE SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
15N-17N BETWEEN 70W-73W. RADAR IMAGERY FROM SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ALSO INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS SURROUNDING THE ISLAND FROM 16N-21N W OF 63W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N11W 7N26W 6N40W
7N52W 8N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 11W-15W...AND N OF THE AXIS NEAR GUINEA
BISSAU FROM 11N-13N E OF 18W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 18W-22W...AND FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 30-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
RADAR IMAGERY FROM SLIDELL LOUISIANA INDICATES THAT THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE IS LOCATED NEAR 30N90W
ABOUT 30 NM E OF NEW ORLEANS ANALYZED AS A 1009 MB LOW
CENTER...AS OF 1500 UTC. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LINE
THE ENTIRE NRN GULF COAST FROM 27N-31N. LOCATIONS NEAR THE LOW
CENTER SHOULD MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING AND FLASH
FLOODING. SOME OF THE CONVECTION IS ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE WRN GULF CENTERED
OVER THE SRN TIP OF TEXAS NEAR 26N97W AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN CENTERED OVER ERN GEORGIA.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MODERATELY DRY AIR ACROSS THE SE
GULF KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR WITH CLEAR SKIES. SLY FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH IS DRAWING
MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC SUPPORTING A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 92W-95W. EXPECT
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO REMAIN ACROSS THE NRN GULF AS
THE REMNANTS OF T.D. FIVE DRIFT FARTHER INLAND WHILE SURFACE
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF FROM THE W ATLC.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
FROM WRN CUBA NEAR 24N84W TO S OF JAMAICA NEAR 16N77W SUPPORTING
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR 25N77W
ACROSS ERN CUBA TO NEAR 18N75W. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE
TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM
20N-24N BETWEEN 73W-77W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH PARALLELS THE
NICARAGUAN COAST ALONG 83W FROM 11N-14N. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE AXIS S OF 13N. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 14N TO THE COAST
OF PANAMA DUE TO SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR AN EXTENSION OF THE
ITCZ ACROSS SRN COSTA RICA TO NRN COLOMBIA ALONG 10N. A TROPICAL
WAVE ACROSS ERN HISPANIOLA IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF THE ISLAND FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN
70W-73W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACROSS PUERTO
RICO AND THE SURROUNDING WATERS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SE CARIBBEAN
MAINTAINING FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO
REMAIN ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN AND THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY BEGIN TO IMPACT THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AS A
TROPICAL WAVE TO E OF THE ISLANDS MOVES NW.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NW BAHAMAS ACROSS ERN CUBA
ALONG 25N77W TO 18N75W SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 73W-77W. SURFACE
RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1016 MB HIGH NEAR 25N66W COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC MAINTAINING FAIR CONDITIONS. THE SURFACE
RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER ERN
GEORGIA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE E OF THE UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED NEAR 28N59W SUPPORTS A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS IN THE
CENTRAL ATLC. THE FIRST EXTENDS FROM 31N53W TO 24N61W SUPPORTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE AXIS. THE SECOND TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N47W TO
26N54W SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-27N
BETWEEN 46W-50W...AND WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE AXIS. FARTHER
E...BROAD SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERS WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF SAHARAN DUST IS MOVING
OFF THE W COAST OF AFRICA E OF 30W S OF 35N SUPPORTING STABLE
CONDITIONS. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BETWEEN 40W-55W. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS TO THE E OF THE RIDGE N OF 20N WITH
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE FAR E ATLC CENTERED OVER
THE CANARY ISLANDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON




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