[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 080600
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN AUG 08 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM COLIN IS CENTERED NEAR 29.8N 65.6W OR ABOUT 160
NM SSW OF BERMUDA AT 08/0600 UTC...MOVING NNE AT 3 KT. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. COLIN REMAINS WEAK AND
DISORGANIZED. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES
ENHANCED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO THE ERN SIDE OF COLIN WHILE
LOWER VALUES ARE TO THE W. THIS CORRELATES TO THE LOCATION OF
THE DEEP CONVECTION WHICH REMAINS TO THE SE OF THE CENTER. ONLY
A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN
64W-66W. COLIN LIES UNDERNEATH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BETWEEN TWO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS TO EACH SIDE OF THE RIDGE.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FOR
MORE INFORMATION...SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FULL
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 24N41W TO
12N41W MOVING WNW NEAR 10 KT. AN ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS FROM
AROUND 0000 UTC INDICATES BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS ABOUT THE WAVE
AXIS CONCENTRATED NEAR A 1011 MB LOW CENTER ALONG THE AXIS AT
20N. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE AREA
OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE WAVE FROM THE ITCZ TO 27N
BETWEEN 35W-45W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS N OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 40W-42W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS TO THE SW OF THE WAVE FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 42W-48W.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

LOW-AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N31W TO 6N29W MOVING
W 10-15 KT. MID TO LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS ABOUT THE WAVE
AXIS MAINLY CONSTRAINED TO THE ITCZ REGION. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM
8N-13N BETWEEN 31W-35W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EXTENDING FROM
22N89W TO 10N90W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS
ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WAVE ALSO
COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SEEN IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE WAVE LIES UNDER A DIFFLUENT ZONE
ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE WRN
GULF AND UPPER RIDGING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. A HUGE BURST OF
CONVECTION THAT FLARED UP NEAR THE WAVE SEVERAL HOURS AGO HAS
MOSTLY DISSIPATED LEAVING POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 18N-22N
BETWEEN 89W-93W. HOWEVER...NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION HAS FORMED
W OF THE WAVE AXIS OVER MEXICO FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 92W-95W.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM W AFRICA NEAR GUINEA BISSAU AT
12N17W CONTINUING ALONG 12N30W 15N40W 11N51W 13N60W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN
13W-24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1015 MB HIGH NEAR 26N85W CONTINUES TO
MAINTAIN FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY
THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY DRY AIR
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NW PORTIONS OF THE BASIN AROUND AN UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER SRN TEXAS NEAR 26N98W.
A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS DRAWING MOISTURE
ACROSS THE SW GULF AND SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ERN HALF OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST PROVIDING A
DIFFLUENT ZONE ALOFT NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS SRN GEORGIA...ALABAMA...MISSISSIPPI...SUPPORTED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING DOWN ACROSS THE ERN CONUS IS DRAWING
MOISTURE ACROSS THE NE GULF...AND SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA N OF 28N E OF 89W.
EXPECT WEAK RIDGING TO REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SE CONUS PUSHES SWD ACROSS N FLORIDA
LIKELY CAUSING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE NE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA HAS PUSHED OUT OF THE NW CARIBBEAN LEAVING
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IN ITS WAKE ACROSS THE BASIN. HOWEVER...SOME
MODERATE MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN WITH A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF CUBA FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN
78W-81W...AS WELL AS ACROSS HAITI. ALOFT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO
AND FAR W ATLC. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALSO COVER THE
FAR SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N BETWEEN 74W-87W ENHANCED BY SURFACE
CONVERGENCE NEAR AN EXTENSION OF THE ITCZ ACROSS COSTA RICA TO
NRN COLOMBIA ALONG 9N. THIS ACTIVITY IS IMPACTING COSTA
RICA...PANAMA...AND NRN COLOMBIA. THE CENTRAL AND ERN CARIBBEAN
ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF EXTREMELY DRY AIR EVIDENT IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY WITH MOSTLY ELY FLOW ALOFT MAINTAINING FAIR
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVED ACROSS THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS AND NOW LIES ALONG 15N61W TO 9N62W ENHANCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 60W-65W.
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF ENHANCED
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE
BASIN TO REMAIN UNDER DRY AIR AND FAIR CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH WHICH
IS FORECAST TO MOVE WWD.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OFF THE ERN COAST OF FLORIDA
N OF 25N W OF 76W ASSOCIATED WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE SE CONUS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE ERN
CONUS AND NW ATLC. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS N OF
THE BAHAMAS NEAR 27N73W. HOWEVER...IT IS ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR
ALOFT WHICH IS KEEPING SURFACE CONDITIONS FAIR BETWEEN 66W-76W.
TO THE E...TROPICAL STORM COLIN IS STILL PRODUCING DISTURBED
WEATHER. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. SURFACE
RIDGING ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1024 MB HIGHS NEAR 34N49W AND
32N36W DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN PROVIDING GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER COLIN BETWEEN
61W-69W SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE TO THE
W...AND A SECOND UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO THE E
CENTERED NEAR 23N55W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE REMAINDER
OF THE BASIN WITH ANTICYCLONIC CENTERS NEAR 23N37W AND 23N23W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON




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