[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 072358
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT AUG 07 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM COLIN IS CENTERED NEAR 29.4N 65.7W OR ABOUT 178
NM SSW OF BERMUDA AT 07/2100 UTC...MOVING NNE AT 6 KT. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. COLIN IS DISORGANIZED
AND IS DEFINED BY A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH NEARLY ALL OF
THE CONVECTION LOCATED SE OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 63W-66W. A
RELATIVELY SHARP RIDGE ALOFT IS IN THE AREA SURROUNDING COLIN
WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
FOR MORE INFORMATION...SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/ WTNT34 KNHC AND THE
FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 40W
FROM 12N TO 24N AND IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. A 1011 MB LOW IS
LOCATED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 20N40W. THE WAVE IS LOCATED ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE E
ATLANTIC. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES HIGH VALUES
STRETCHING FROM THE ITCZ NORTHWARD TO 27N BETWEEN 30W AND 45W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 38W-42W.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE HIGH FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ALONG 29W FROM 6N-15N
AND IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS IS A LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH
CONVECTION MAINLY ALONG THE ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 30W-33W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 89W MOVING W AT 10
KT. THE WAVE IS EASILY IDENTIFIABLE ON THE LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY WITH AN ENHANCED INVERTED V SIGNATURE. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 87W-92W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 12N16W 10N24W 15N40W 11N48W 12N60W.
BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W
AFRICA FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 13W-22W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 41W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1016 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
25N85W. A VERY LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING ONLY
5-10 KT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE GULF. A 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED
OVER S GEORGIA NEAR 32N83W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER THE NE GULF...N FLORIDA...AND S GEORGIA FROM
29N-32N BETWEEN 80W-87W. RADAR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER INLAND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
FLORIDA FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 80W-83W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 26N96W. AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER N FLORIDA ENHANCING CONVECTION. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER FLORIDA AND
THE E GULF...AND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MAJOR FEATURE OVER THE AREA IS A TROPICAL WAVE OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA. SEE ABOVE. THE ITCZ ALSO TRAVERSES N COLOMBIA ...PANAMA
...AND COSTA RICA PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 76W-85W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF CUBA FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN
76W-82W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER HISPANIOLA
AND JAMAICA. MORE ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 59W-64W. 10-15 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH 20 KT WINDS OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF HISPANIOLA. AN AREA OF SAHARAN DUST IS
OVER THE CARIBBEAN E OF 75W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N86W. UPPER
LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF
75W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN.
EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM
27N-31N BETWEEN 76W-79W. TROPICAL STORM COLIN IS FURTHER E
MOVING NNE. SEE ABOVE. A 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 32N50W. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. SAHARAN DUST IS OVER THE ATLANTIC N OF
21N...E OF 60W TO W AFRICA...EXCLUDING NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVES.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC
NEAR 27N73W. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING UPPER LEVEL SHEAR OVER
TROPICAL STORM COLIN. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED N OF
PUERTO RICO NEAR 23N66W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 22N50W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER
THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 24N24W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA






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