[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 062354
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI AUG 06 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM COLIN IS CENTERED NEAR 28.7N 66.6W OR ABOUT 280
NM SSW OF BERMUDA AT 07/0000 UTC...MOVING NORTH 8 KT. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO BE EMBEDDED IN A REGION OF HIGH VALUES OF MOISTURE NOTED ON
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. LAST VISIBLE IMAGES OF THE DAY
SHOWED COLIN GENERATING MULTIPLE LOW LEVEL SWIRLS AROUND THE
MAIN CENTER OF CIRCULATION EXPOSED. DEEP CONVECTION IN THE
NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST QUADRANTS OF COLIN HAVE CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE MAIN CENTER OF CIRCULATION WITH NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N TO 30N BETWEEN 61W AND
66W. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF COLIN IS EXPECTED TO
PASS NEAR OR OVER BERMUDA LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR
MORE INFORMATION...SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FULL
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 20N34W 14N37W
7N41W...MOVING WESTWARD 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO BE
EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ WITH HIGH VALUES OF TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER. BROAD SURFACE/MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DERIVED
WINDS. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 6N TO 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 43W. SOME OF
THE PRECIPITATION IN THIS AREA IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.
ALTHOUGH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOT CURRENTLY WELL
ORGANIZED...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN WEST OF THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS...FROM 20N82W TO EASTERN HONDURAS NEAR 16N84W.
WEAK CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE
AXIS. THIS WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A REGION OF MAXIMUM TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER...PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF 80W NORTH OF 13N...INCLUDING
INLAND REGIONS OF NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...BELIZE...AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT
ANTICIPATED BEFORE IT MOVES OVER CENTRAL AMERICA IN A DAY OR SO.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE WESTERN AFRICAN COAST OF
GUINEA NEAR 10N14W...WESTWARD ALONG 10N26W 14N35W 10N43W 7N50W
6N57W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 130 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 22W AND
45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 23N92W COVERING THE ENTIRE GULF.
HOWEVER...DRY AIR EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE
MID/UPPER LOW IS KEEPING THIS SYSTEM WITHOUT PRODUCING ANY
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION...ALLOWING ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE THE BASIN. THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING WITH THE ANTI-CYCLONIC
FLOW AROUND A WEAK SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 25N90W. COMPUTER
MODELS INDICATE THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MAJOR FEATURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS A TROPICAL WAVE WEST OF
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...FROM 20N82W TO EASTERN HONDURAS NEAR
16N84W. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN WEST OF 80W NORTH OF 13N. FOR
MORE DETAILS REGARDING THIS WAVE...SEE TROPICAL WAVES ABOVE. THE
ITCZ ALSO TRAVERSES N COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND COSTA
RICA...PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SOUTH
OF 12N WEST OF 70W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND SAHARAN DUST ALOFT IS
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. THEREFORE...FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS PREDOMINATE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS DOMINATE THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WEST OF 69W...SUPPORTED BY A 1016 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N76W.
TO THE EAST OF THIS FEATURE...TROPICAL STORM COLIN CONTINUES TO
GENERATE CONVECTION FROM 22N TO 23N BETWEEN 59W AND 67W. FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT COLIN...SEE SPECIAL FEATURE ABOVE. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF BROAD SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1022 MB
HIGHS CENTERED NEAR 30N51W AND 32N35W RESPECTIVELY. ALSO...AN
AMPLE 1025 MB HIGH IS WELL NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
45N21W...WITH A LARGE AREA OF DRY SAHARAN AIR EMBEDDED IN THE
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FURTHER HELPING TO KEEP CONDITIONS
FAIR ACROSS THIS REGION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA



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