[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 060007
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU AUG 05 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH COLIN HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS...MAKING THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED
AGAIN...AND THEREFORE THIS SYSTEM IS BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM
STATUS WITH A LOW CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 66.3W. THIS SYSTEM
IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 17 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE WITHIN 90 NM
OF THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 21N TO 27N BETWEEN 62W AND 66W. THIS
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE EMBEDDED IN A REGION OF HIGH VALUES OF
MOISTURE NOTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION OF THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 20N33W 15N34W
8N35W...MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO BE
EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ WITH HIGH VALUES OF TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 8N TO 16N BETWEEN 28W AND 37W. SOME OF
THE PRECIPITATION IN THIS AREA IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM SOUTH OF
JAMAICA NEAR 16N77W TO NORTH OF PANAMA NEAR 11N81W. WEAK
CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE. THIS
WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A REGION OF MAXIMUM TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER. THIS WAVE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY
SHOWERS WITHIN 40 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST OF SENEGAL
NEAR 13N17W...WESTWARD ALONG 14N25W 17N30W 10N40W 8N50W 10N60W.
BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 130 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS EAST OF 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 22N89W
COVERS MOST OF THE GULF ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
THE BASIN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NE CORNER OF THE BASIN N OF 25N
E OF 85W. A SURFACE TROUGH CROSSES SW MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA...ENTERING THE NORTHERN GULF NEAR 29N92W TO
28N93W. DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
WITHING 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM
IS SUPPORTED BY MID/UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARP
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE SE CONUS. COMPUTER MODELS
INDICATE THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION OFF THE
COAST OF LOUISIANA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN TIP OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS ENHANCING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN
100 NM OFF THE COASTS OF HONDURAS AND BELIZE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS
OBSERVED FROM SOUTH OF JAMAICA NEAR 16N77W TO NORTH OF PANAMA
NEAR 11N81W PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITHIN
40 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. FOR MORE DETAILS REGARDING
THIS WAVE...SEE TROPICAL WAVES DISCUSSION ABOVE. FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS PREDOMINATE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR 26N76W. DRY AIR EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW IS KEEPING THIS SYSTEM WITHOUT
PRODUCING ANY CONVECTION. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH COLIN
HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...MAKING THIS SYSTEM TO
BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AGAIN...AND THEREFORE THIS SYSTEM IS BACK
TO A TROPICAL STORM STATUS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE EMBEDDED
IN A REGION OF HIGH VALUES OF MOISTURE NOTED ON TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT COLIN...SEE
SPECIAL FEATURE ABOVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ATLANTIC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A
1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N51W AND AN AMPLE 1026 MB HIGH WELL
NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 43N24W. ALSO...A LARGE AREA OF
DRY SAHARAN AIR IS EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE...FURTHER HELPING TO KEEP CONDITIONS FAIR ACROSS
THIS REGION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA



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