[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050009
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED AUG 04 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N22W...ACROSS THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...TO 9N32W...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N TO 14N
BETWEEN 19W AND 21W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALSO ARE FROM 9N TO 13N BETWEEN 28W AND 40W. SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION IN THIS AREA PROBABLY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.

A NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA/ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS
THE REMNANT SYSTEM OF COLIN FROM YESTERDAY 03/2100 UTC.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ARE FROM 19N TO 21N
BETWEEN 60W AND 63W. OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ELSEWHERE FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 59W AND 67W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS COVER THE
WATERS FROM 17N IN THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO 24N IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND TO 32N BETWEEN 53W AND 70W. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SOME PRECIPITATION MAY BE IN SOME AREAS OF THIS
CLOUDINESS.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W/74W TO THE SOUTH OF
17N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 72W AND 74W. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 15N ON TOP OF THE WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...
FROM THE COAST OF SENEGAL NEAR 16N17W TO 15N22 10N34W 7N50W...
TOWARD TOBAGO. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
ARE FROM 9N TO 13N BETWEEN 28W AND 46W...AND FROM 6N TO 9N
BETWEEN 48W AND 61W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE WEST OF 70W...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N75W TO A SECOND CYCLONIC
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 23N86W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
TO A THIRD CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS WEAKENING COMPARATIVELY
AND HAS BEEN MOVING ACROSS MEXICO NEAR 24N102W. STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NEAR 28N83W.
ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS REMAIN FROM 21N TO 25N BETWEEN
84W AND 92W. COMPARATIVELY MORE SHOWERS WERE IN THIS AREA SIX
HOURS AGO. THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN DECREASING IN COVERAGE
WITH TIME. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS COVER MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 97W...IN THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND ELSEWHERE BETWEEN
GUATEMALA AND 97W. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN IS NEAR 15N96W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 97W AND 100W.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE U.S.A.
GULF OF MEXICO STATES FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA...ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 16N TO
THE WEST OF 80W...AROUND THE 23N86W SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COVER CUBA TO THE WEST OF 76W. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM
15N TO 16N BETWEEN 84W AND 85W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING IN AN AREA OF BROAD
SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW THAT COVERS THE AREA FROM
10N TO 15N BETWEEN 79W AND 89W...INCLUDING ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AMERICA...NICARAGUA AND EL SALVADOR. SHOWERS ARE IN
NORTHERN HAITI AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC NEAR A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH. IT IS IMPORTANT FOR THE
RESIDENTS OF THE ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO
MONITOR THE POSSIBLE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF COLIN DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR
NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE/REDEVELOPED LOW CENTER IF ANY OF THIS
FEATURE REMAINS NEAR THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF 70W...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 65W FROM BERMUDA AT LEAST TO 20N.
THE REMNANT FEATURE OF COLIN IS MOVING TOWARD AND SLIGHTLY
THROUGH THE AREA OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL
EXTENDS FROM A 37N40W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 31N41W TO
25N43W 15N45W. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT WITH
THIS TROUGH. THIS TROUGH IS SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NAR/MT




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