[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 031804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE AUG 03 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN AT 03/1500 UTC IS NEAR
14.2N 49.5W...MOVING WESTWARD 21 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE
35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE
PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 15N51W.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SIX HOURS AGO WERE FROM
15N TO 17N BETWEEN 49W AND 51W. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IN
THIS AREA HAVE WARMED AND THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN WEAKENING
DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. RESIDENTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
COLIN. THE CENTER OF COLIN SHOULD PASS TO THE NORTHEAST AND
NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...
55 KM FROM THE CENTER.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A NEW TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE ANALYSIS...ALONG
17N21W 13N22W...SOUTHWARD ALONG 22W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN
AFRICA AND 30W. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THIS AREA ALSO
IS RELATED JUST TO THE ITCZ.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N70W TO 13N69W...AND
SOUTHWARD ALONG 69W. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. THE WAVE
IS IN THE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...ABOUT 200 NM
TO THE SOUTH OF THE BASE OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WHOSE BASE REACHES THE SOUTHERN MONA PASSAGE. SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA NEAR 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 62W AND 70W. THE 24-HOUR
RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 03/1200 UTC FOR
PORT OF SPAIN IN TRINIDAD WAS 1.89 INCHES.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...ACROSS MEXICO NEAR ITS BORDER WITH GUATEMALA...
BEYOND SOUTHWESTERN GUATEMALA. MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS GO FROM 18N OVER LAND TO 20N IN THE WATER BETWEEN
94W AND 96W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD ENDING
AT 03/1200 UTC FOR MERIDA MEXICO WAS 1.33 INCHES.

...THE ITCZ...
FROM THE COAST OF SENEGAL NEAR 15N17W TO 7N33W 7N43W 12N59W...
TO JUST NORTH OF TRINIDAD NEAR 11N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF
8N33W...FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 36W AND 40W..AND FROM 8N TO 10N
BETWEEN 57W AND 59W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE
TO THE SOUTH OF 12N TO THE WEST OF 48W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF
70W...UPPER LEVEL LARGE-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA. A TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED
ALONG THE PERIPHERY AND JUST OUTSIDE THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...
FROM A CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N77W NEAR THE NORTHERNMOST
BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...TO A WEAK CYCLONIC
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N91W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N71W
27N75W...FROM THE SOUTHERN END OF A STATIONARY FRONT. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N68W TO 27N75W
25N79W...THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...TO 24N86W. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE COASTAL PLAINS FROM MISSISSIPPI TO ALL
OF THE LOUISIANA COASTAL PLAINS...IN AN AREA OF A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS AS ONLY
THE 1016 MB ISOBAR COVERS THE AREA FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
NORTHWESTWARD THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 19N82W IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA
TO THE NORTH OF 16N TO THE WEST OF JAMAICA. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN
83W AND THE SOUTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA/BELIZE/NORTHEASTERN
GUATEMALA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 25N64W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER TO 17N69W JUST OUTSIDE THE SOUTHERN MONA
PASSAGE. SHOWERS ARE IN NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO. CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 64W...
BEING ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS AWAY FROM THE
69W/70W TROPICAL WAVE...UNDER UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF 70W...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 25N64W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER TO 17N69W JUST OUTSIDE THE SOUTHERN MONA PASSAGE. SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W. STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N TO 21N BETWEEN 54W AND 57W ARE IN
THE AREA OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH. THIS PRECIPITATION IS
OCCURRING ABOUT 400 NM TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF TROPICAL STORM
COLIN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM 27N22W TO 21N25W TO
15N34W TO 14N40W. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT
WITH THIS TROUGH. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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