[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

Tue Aug 3 00:59:40 CDT 2010

AXNT20 KNHC 030559
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE AUG 03 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR IS CENTERED NEAR 13.6N 45.1W OR ABOUT
950 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AT 03/0300 UTC MOVING W-NW AT 20
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE THE LATEST
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 44W-49W. LITTLE CHANGE TO
THE ORGANIZATION OF THE DEPRESSION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BE IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND COULD BE TROPICAL
STORM TUE NIGHT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS NW OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FOUR FROM 24N48W 19N47W 15N46W MOVING NW AT 15-20 KT.
THIS WAVE IS CURRENT DEPICTED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A WIND
SURGE WHILE MOST OF THE ENERGY HAS BEEN ABSORBED BY TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FOUR AND WILL BE DROPPED FROM THE 03/0600 UTC MAP. NO
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN IS FROM 18N62W TO INLAND OVER
VENEZUELA NEAR 8N63W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK CYCLONIC CURVATURE
WAS OBSERVED IN THE LOW CLOUDS ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE SE OF LINE
FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA
NEAR 11N69W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN AT 03/0300 UTC IS ALONG THE E
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 86/87W S OF 21N MOVING W
NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF LOWER
SURFACE PRESSURE AND JUST TO THE W OF A MID LEVEL LOW THAT IS
CENTERED INLAND OVER HONDURAS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA AS WELL AS IN
THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 17N W OF 87W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 17N16W 15N21W 10N25W 7N41W 9N46W
8N52W 11N61W. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 12N-16N E OF 19W TO JUST INLAND OVER N
SENEGAL WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 11N-17N WE OF
22W TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA BETWEEN 55W-58W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE
FROM 12N23W TO 8N30W. LARGER CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 31W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY EXTENDING AN AXIS S INTO THE GULF OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
COAST TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN NEAR
21N86W WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE SW GULF
FROM S MEXICO AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N95W TO NEAR
23N96W. THIS INVERTED UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A WEAKENING
SURFACE TROUGH AT 03/0300 UTC EXTENDING FROM 26N95W TO 23N96W
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE TROUGH
AXIS. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE N GULF IS ENHANCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER S GEORGIA AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE NE GULF N OF 28N E OF 85W. LINGERING
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. THIN
CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE GULF BUT IS NOT PRODUCING
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN
N OF 20N WITH A SMALL UPPER LOW OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 77W-80W. A MID LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED INLAND
OVER HONDURAS COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE W CARIBBEAN W OF
80W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA
RICA AND COUPLED WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW ARE GENERATING CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 18N W OF 80W TO
INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC DIPS S OVER THE GREAT ANTILLES FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO
HISPANIOLA WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E
CARIBBEAN ANCHORED IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC. THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE
W ATLC N OF 27N W OF 78W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS TO THE E
EXTENDING THROUGH 32N73W TO 27N77W WITH A DISSIPATING STATIONARY
FRONT ENTERING THE REGION THROUGH 32N70W ALONG 29N74W TO 28N78W
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE LARGE UPPER LOW IS IN THE
W/CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 24N62W AND DIPS S OVER A PORTION OF
THE GREATER ANTILLES AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 61W-64W. A SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN N OF 20N E OF 65W
ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH N OF THE AZORES AND RATHER BENIGN
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. THIS IS MAINTAINING FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net